Rupiah assets rallied on Wednesday, with the JCI rising, INDOGB yields declining, and the rupiah rebounding against the USD, as market sentiment improved following signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations. US President Donald Trump signaled great progress toward a potential agreement with Iran, easing geopolitical concerns in the Persian Gulf. As a result, WTI crude oil prices fell sharply by around 6% to near USD 96/bbl, extending the previous session s 3.9% decline. The JCI rose by +0.5% to 7,092 (+2.0% MTD, -18.0% YTD), while the daily equity turnover stood at Rp17.7tn, bringing the 2026 average daily trading value to Rp24.5tn. However, foreign investors recorded a net equity outflow of -Rp482.1bn (+Rp0.9tn MTD, -Rp49.0tn YTD). Regionally, Asian equities also moved higher, with the Straits Times Index gaining +0.1% to 4,927 (+6.1% YTD) and the Hang Seng Index rising by +1.2% to 26,214 (+2.3% YTD).
In the bond market, INDOGB prices rebounded, driving yields lower across the curve, supported by continued foreign inflows into the bond market. Foreign investors posted net buying of Rp269bn (vs. Rp210.8bn previously), mainly concentrated in benchmark series (+Rp314bn). Benchmark yields declined across tenors, with the 5-yr FR109 falling to 6.69% (-9.1 bps), the 10-yr FR108 to 6.73% (-7.1 bps), the 15-yr FR106 to 6.87% (-2.7 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 to 6.76% (-2.7 bps). External indicators also improved, with Indonesia s 5-yr USD bond yield declining to 4.55% (-5.9 bps), while the 5-yr CDS tightened further to 86.46 bps (-3.2 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah appreciated by +0.21% to Rp17,389/USD (-0.21% MTD, -4.19% YTD).
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity moderated on Wednesday (6-May), with total volume declining to Rp26.3tn (vs. Rp37.2tn on 5-May). Turnover came in below both the prior week s daily average of Rp37.5tn and the 2026 YTD average of Rp32.6tn. The 5-yr FR0109 benchmark series (maturing on 15-Mar-31) continued to dominate market activity, recording Rp3.4tn in trading volume. Its price climbed to 97.00 (+0.78%), while the yield declined to 6.60% (-18.67bps). This was followed by the 6.8-yr FR0096 series (maturing on 15-Feb-33), which recorded Rp2.7tn in trading volume. Its price rose sharply to 101.40 (+1.65%), while the yield declined to 6.74% (-30.77bps). Meanwhile, the 4.2-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) followed, recording a total volume of Rp2.2tn. Its price advanced to 101.00 (+1.98%), while the yield edged down to 6.22% (-54.11bps).
From a positioning perspective, foreign ownership in SBN continued to edge higher to Rp867.8tn, equivalent to 12.77% of the total outstanding, as of 5-May. Year-to-date flow data continue to show that domestic investors remain the primary buyers of government bonds, led by insurance and pension funds (+Rp81.1tn), Bank Indonesia (+Rp66.8tn), and other investors (+Rp62.3tn). Mutual funds and retail investors also recorded net inflows of Rp17tn and Rp13.7tn, respectively. Meanwhile, foreign investors and banks remained net sellers on a YTD basis, with outflows of -Rp10.8tn and -Rp0.7tn, respectively.
On the monetary side, the SRBI auction held on 6-May showed stronger demand, with the total incoming bids increasing to nearly Rp40tn (vs. Rp28.3tn previously). However, BI sharply reduced issuance to only Rp2.5tn (vs. Rp27tn previously), significantly below the initial target of Rp20tn. As a result, the bid-to-cover ratio surged to 16.24x from 1.05x in the prior auction. Despite the sharp decline in issuance, SRBI yields continued to move higher, with the weighted average yield rising further by +22 bps to 6.41%. By tenor, the 6-mo SRBI was awarded at 6.11% (+27 bps), the 9-mo at 6.24% (+27 bps), and the 12-mo tenor at 6.50% (+28 bps).
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity also moderated on Wednesday (6-May), with total volume declining to Rp6.1tn (vs. Rp9.9tn on 5-May). Turnover came in below both the prior week s daily average of Rp9.2tn and the 2026 YTD average of Rp7.3tn.
The SMPPGD03ACN5 series (maturing on 13-Sep-26), rated idAAA(sy), emerged as the most actively traded corporate bond, recording Rp400bn in trading volume. Its price increased to 100.42 (+0.89%), while the yield registered a sharp decline to 4.89% (-254.60bps). This was followed by the SWCARE01B series (maturing on 9-Jul-28), rated irA-(sy), which recorded Rp255bn in trading volume. Its price declined to 102.81 (-1.53%), while the yield climbed to 9.30% (+79.74bps). Meanwhile, the SMADMF06ACN1 series (maturing on 18-Jul-26), rated idAAA(sy), followed with Rp240bn in trading volume. Its price rose to 100.21 (+0.87%), while the yield dropped significantly to 5.12% (-427.40bps).
Fitch Ratings Indonesia has downgraded the National Long-Term Rating of Perusahaan Umum Kehutanan Negara (Perum Perhutani) to BBB(idn) from A-(idn) with a Negative Outlook. The downgrade reflects a weakening in Perhutani s business and financial profiles, mainly due to declining wood sales volumes and softer demand from export-oriented customers. The Negative Outlook reflects uncertainties around the improvement of Perhutani’s credit profile amid weaker end demand from its buyers that sell products overseas. Fitch assesses Perhutani on a standalone basis, citing minimal likelihood of extraordinary government support despite its SOE status. The company s credit profile is under pressure from declining EBITDA, rising leverage, and weaker interest coverage, alongside expected free cash flow deficits driven by ongoing capex needs. While access to funding is partially supported by relationships with state-owned banks, this may not fully offset deteriorating financial flexibility. Compared with peers such as AirNav Indonesia, Perhutani has a weaker business position and lacks a critical public-service role, limiting expectations of government support.
Fitch Ratings Indonesia has affirmed the National Long-Term Rating of PT Bank ICBC Indonesia at AAA(idn) with a Stable Outlook, along with its National Short-Term Rating at F1+(idn) . The ratings reflect the strongest credit quality on the national scale and are primarily driven by expected parental support. The affirmation is underpinned by a high likelihood of extraordinary support from its parent, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, and ultimately the Chinese sovereign. Fitch views ICBC Indonesia as strategically important to the group s regional expansion, particularly in serving Chinese clients and gaining exposure to Indonesia s market. The parent s strong financial capacity and the subsidiary s relatively small size further reinforce the ability to provide support if needed. However, the rating remains subject to potential constraints from transfer and convertibility risks, as well as any changes in the parent s willingness or ability to support the subsidiary.
Fitch Ratings Indonesia has affirmed the National Long-Term Rating of PT Bank ANZ Indonesia at AAA(idn) and National Short-Term Rating at F1+(idn) with a Stable Outlook, before subsequently withdrawing all ratings for commercial reasons. The ratings reflected the bank s strong linkage to its parent, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited, with Fitch viewing ANZ Indonesia as a strategically important and highly integrated subsidiary within the group s regional institutional banking operations. In Fitch s view, the ratings were driven by a high likelihood of extraordinary parental support, underpinned by ANZ s strong credit profile, ANZ Indonesia s small relative size, and the reputational importance of maintaining stability across its international network. However, the bank s ability to access such support may be constrained by Indonesia s country ceiling, reflecting transfer and convertibility risks.
