Today’s highlights:

A week ahead, markets are awaiting Fed’s rate decision (cons: 3.75%, prev: 3.75%). On commodity space, gold rally continued, surpassing USD5k/oz, driven by recent turmoil in US geopolitical agenda, as well as massive selloffs in JGB. From domestic, M2 supply grew by +9.6% y-y last month (prev: +8.3% y-y), the fastest growth since Oct’22, indicating improvement in real sector.

From the bond market, FR 86, 56, 37, and 99 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 97.60 (-0.8%). Rupiah was appreciated by 0.4% at USDIDR at 16,820. The 10yr UST yield decreased by +2.0bps to 4.23% and 10yr INDOGBR increased by +5.4bps to 6.40% – the spread between the two was at 217bps.

Economy: Gold price surpassed USD5k/oz

Gold recently hit USD5,040/oz, where last week itself saw +8% w-w increase. The situation took place amidst weakening USD, with DXY declining by -10.0% ytd. It followed Trump’s recent actions, intervening in Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland. Massive selloffs in JGB also fueled the gold rally. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: In Dec’25, M2 grew steadily by +9.6% y-y (prev: +8.3% y-y)

The position was recorded at IDR10,133.1tn (prev: IDR9,893.3tn). The stable money supply growth was driven by M1 growth (curr: +14.0% y-y, prev: +11.4% y-y). the IDR demand deposit grew significantly by +22.3% y-y (prev: +14.8% y-y) and IDR saving deposits that can be drawn at any time grew faster by +7.7% y-y (prev: +7.5% y-y). Meawhile, currency outside commercial and rural banks rose slower by +14.3% y-y (prev: +14.6% y-y). Quasi-money component, which accounted for ~40.7% of the total M2, grew slower by +5.5% y-y (prev: +6.0% y-y). FX demand deposits, which represented ~17.2% of total quasi-money, grew by +2.1% y-y (prev: +6.4% y-y), followed by other saving deposits (portion: ~17.2%) (curr: +11.9% y-y, prev: +17.2% y-y). Time deposits, in contrast, representing ~75.4% of total quasi-money, grew faster by +5.8% y-y (prev: +4.9% y-y). The last component of M2—securities other than shares—contracted significantly by -54.0% y-y (prev: -58.6% y-y). Source: Bank Indonesia

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