Today’s highlights:

In Oct’25, ADP Employment was above consensus (curr: +42k m-m, cons: +30k m-m, prev: -29k m-m). However, the overall trend was still general softening in labor markets. From domestic, 3Q25 GDP exceeded expectations (curr: +5.04% y-y, TRIM: +4.79% y-y, cons: +5.00% y-y, prev: +5.12% y-y), driven by exports (curr: +9.91% y-y, prev: +10.95% y-y) and govt. expenditures (curr: +5.49% y-y, prev: -0.33% y-y). In 4Q25, we expect the quarterly GDP at +5.00% y-y, leading to FY25 growth of +5.00% y-y, driven by bunches of stimuli this quarter.

From the bond market, FR 84, 86, 56, and 37 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 100.20 -0.0%. Rupiah was depreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 16,717. The 10yr UST yield was up by +7.4bps at 4.16% and 10yr INDOGBR was up by +0.8bps at 6.18% – the spread between the two was at 202bps.

Economy: In Oct’25, US ADP Employment was above consensus (curr: +42k m-m, cons: +30k m-m, prev: -29k m-m)

The result marked the first positive figure in the last 3mo.Employment in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities was up by +47k m-m, followed by Education & Health Services (curr: +25k m-m) and Financial Activities (curr: +11k m-m). However, overall trend still demonstrated general softening in US labor markets. Source: Kontan

Economy: In 3Q25, Indonesia’s real GDP was above consensus (curr: +5.04% y-y, TRIM: +4.79% y-y, cons: +5.00% y-y, prev: +5.12% y-y)

By component, the biggest contributor was govt. expenditures (curr: +5.49% y-y, prev: -0.33% y-y), resulting in the first positive growth this year. The trade side also fueled resilient growth. Exports grew by +9.91% y-y last quarter (prev: +10.95% y-y), with imports softening to +1.18% y-y (prev: +11.48% y-y). Household consumption stayed ample at +4.89% y-y (prev: +4.97% y-y). Source: BPS

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Research Division

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.