Bond Market Review (Monday,10/06)

Prices of Government Debt Securities (SUN) closed higher in yesterday’s trading session. Based on data from PHEI, the yield on the 5-year SUN Benchmark (FR0104) fell by 1 basis point (bp) to 5.45%, while the yield on the 10-year SUN Benchmark (FR0103) declined by 4 bps to 6.27%. Bloomberg data showed that the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) fell by 2 bps to 6.30%. The 10-year yield curve level remains within our weekly estimated range of 6.24%–6.43%.

The outright traded transaction volume of Government Securities (SBN) was recorded at Rp16.6 trillion yesterday, lower than the previous day’s volume of Rp34.7 trillion. FR0104 and FR0091 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp3.9 trillion and Rp1.5 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, the outright trading volume of corporate bonds stood at Rp3.0 trillion.

Bloomberg data indicated that the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar weakened slightly by 0.12%, from Rp16,563/US$ on Friday to Rp16,583/US$ yesterday.

Bond Market Preview (Tuesday,10/07)

As of this morning, global indicators show sentiment leaning negative for the bond market, reflected in the increase in US Treasury (UST) yields. The UST yield curve for 5-year and 10-year tenors rose by 3 bps and 5 bps to 3.75% and 4.18%, respectively. However, Indonesia’s 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) continued to decline by 1 bp to 78 bps. The decline in CDS reflects that investor confidence in Indonesia’s creditworthiness remains well anchored.

The Government of Indonesia will hold a SUN auction on October 7, 2025, with an indicative target of Rp23 trillion and a maximum target of 150% of the indicative. At the previous SUN auction on September 23, 2025, total incoming bids reached Rp98.5 trillion, with Rp33.0 trillion awarded. Assessing current market conditions, we estimate that total incoming bids in today’s auction will range between Rp80–110 trillion.

Considering the above factors, we anticipate demand for Rupiah-denominated Government Securities (SBN) will remain stable. Based on yield curve valuation, the following bonds may be attractive to investors: FR0080, FR0103, FR0075, FR0098, and FR0106.

Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for October 7, 2025 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!

IND

https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=7d15b1d1-fb1c-49f0-bbc8-cba0c23206ef

ENG

https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=b945a409-412b-4587-8c0a-582972aaa2fd