A week ahead, markets were anticipating US May NFP (cons: +125k m-m, prev: +177k m-m) and Indonesia’s May CPI (TRIM: +1.95% y-y, cons: +1.87% y-y, prev: +1.95% y-y). From US, Bessent said that US would not default, while the Treasury may run out of cash in Aug’25. He was also optimistic of US-China ties solved very soon. From China, last month’s NBS Mfg. PMI rose to 49.5 (cons: 49.5, prev: 49.0), followed by Non-Mfg. figure (curr: 50.3, cons: 50.5, prev: 50.4), amidst toned down Trump’s tariffs. From domestic, 27 May saw net inflows of IDR1.50tn wtd, driven by govt. bonds (curr: +IDR2.02tn wtd). On fiscal side, MoF adjusted official business fare guidelines for 2026, while the efficiency became the top priority. Meanwhile, non-subsidized fuel prices were lowered by -3.1% m-m on avg. On growth, S&P Global Mfg. PMI improved to 47.4 (prev: 46.7), but the number still reflected drag on economy.
From the bond market, FR 40, 84, 86, and 94, are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 99.88 (+0.4%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 16,296. The UST yield was up by +3.4bps to 4.48% and 10yr INDOGBR was up by +0.9bps to 6.84% – the spread between the two was at 236bps.
Economy: US would not default, Bessent said
US Secretary of Treasury—Scott Bessent—said that US would not hit the debt ceiling. Congress still waited for Senate’s responses on debt limit increase. While Bessent did not specify the deadline, he earlier revealed that Treasury would run out of cash in Aug’25. Furthermore, he was optimistic that US-China ties would be solved very soon. Source: Bloomberg
Economy: BI published updates on IDR stability indicators
A.o. 27 May, Indonesia’s 5yr CDS premium was down by -3.23bps wtd, reaching 79.33bps. On wtd basis, 27 May saw net foreign inflows at +IDR1.50tn, with SRBI, govt. bonds, and stocks contributing by +IDR2.02tn, +IDR0.11tn, and -IDR0.63tn, respectively. Since the beginning of this year, net flows in stocks were at -IDR45.34tn, followed by SRBI at -IDR7.22tn, and govt. bonds at +IDR47.10tn. Source: Bank Indonesia
Economy: Indonesia’s MoF changed business trip fare guidelines
On 20 May’25, MoF Regulation (PMK) No. 32 of 2025 regarding 2026’s Input Cost Standards was issued. Notable points were on travel expenses for ministers and civil servants, with details as follow: (1) IDR2.1mn—IDR9.3mn for domestic accommodation (prev: IDR2.1mn—9.7mn); (2) IDR94k–462k for transportation (prev: IDR104k—574k). ON the other hand, daily allowance for overseas travel rose to USD347—792 (prev: USD296—792). Various thresholds also stayed the same: (1) daily allowance for domestic travel at at IDR360k–IDR580k, (2) daily representation allowance at IDR250k, (3) maximum limit for domestic airplane fare for business class at IDR22.1mn & economy class at IDR1.46mn, (7) maximum limit for overseas airplane fare at USD12.1k (economy), USD16.3k (business), and USD23.1 (executives). This regulation aimed to ensure that travel expenses were carried out selectively, considering the priorities and urgencies. Source: Kontan
Economy: Prices of Pertamina’s non-subsidized fuel products were decreased Starting to be effective on 1 Jun, Pertamax’s price was changed to IDR12,100/l (prev: IDR12,400/l), Pertamax Turbo’s at IDR13,050/l (prev: IDR13,300/l), Pertamax Green 95’s at IDR12,800/l (prev: IDR13,150/l), Dexlite’s at IDR12,740/l (prev: IDR13,350/l), and Pertamina Dex’s at IDR13,200/l (prev: IDR13,750/l). Source: CNBC
Research Division
PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.
