Bond Market Review (Wednesday,05/13)
Prices of Government Debt Securities (SUN) strengthened in Wednesday’s trading session last week. PHEI data showed that the yield on the 5-year SUN benchmark (FR0109) declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 6.58%, while the yield on the 10-year SUN benchmark (FR0108) fell by 5 bps to 6.67%. According to Bloomberg data, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) decreased by 2 bps to 6.69%.
Outright transaction volume in Government Securities (SBN) reached Rp15.6 trillion on Wednesday, lower than the previous day’s volume of Rp23.7 trillion. FR0104 and FR0109 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp2.3 trillion and Rp1.8 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, outright transaction volume for corporate bonds totaled Rp5.0 trillion.
Foreign investors recorded net selling of Rp1.7 trillion in the equity market during the period of 11–12 May 2026. In the Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI) market, foreign investors recorded net buying of Rp3.2 trillion during the same period. Meanwhile, in the SBN market, based on DJPPR settlement data up to 12 May 2026, foreign investors recorded net buying of Rp3.9 trillion. As a result, aggregate foreign investor flows during the period were estimated at a net buy of Rp5.4 trillion. On a cumulative basis from the beginning of 2026 through 12 May 2026, foreign investors recorded net selling of Rp39.3 trillion in equities, net selling of Rp10.2 trillion in SBN, and net buying of Rp105.16 trillion in SRBI (BI, DJPPR, IDX).
Last week, Bank Indonesia conducted one SRBI auction (13 May) with a total awarded amount of Rp22.0 trillion, lower than the previous week, which conducted two auctions (6 May and 8 May) with total absorption of Rp32.5 trillion (Rp2.5 trillion and Rp30.0 trillion). For the 12-month tenor, the weighted average yield (WAY) of SRBI stood at 6.45% at the 13 May auction, increasing by approximately 5 bps compared with the 8 May 2026 auction. On a year-to-date basis as of 13 May 2026, BI has issued Rp446.9 trillion of SRBI, while SRBI maturities during 5M26 are estimated at Rp255.9 trillion.
Bloomberg data showed that the Rupiah strengthened by 0.30% against the US Dollar, moving from Rp17,529/US$ on Tuesday to Rp17,476/US$ on Wednesday. Meanwhile, global indicators were relatively unchanged from the previous day. The 5-year and 10-year US Treasury (UST) yields remained unchanged at 4.12% and 4.46%, respectively. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) remained unchanged at 85 bps.
Bond Market Preview (Monday,05/18)
Indonesia’s capital market was closed on 14–15 May. During the period, Bloomberg data showed that the 5-year and 10-year UST yields increased by 14 bps and 13 bps, respectively, from their 13 May levels to 4.26% and 4.59%. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS rose by 2 bps to 87 bps. At the same time, the Rupiah weakened by 0.69% against the US Dollar to Rp17,597/US$.
On a week-over-week basis, the 10-year UST yield increased by 21 bps, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS rose by 3 bps, and the Rupiah weakened by 1.24% against the US Dollar. Against this market backdrop, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) recorded a weekly increase of 9 bps to 6.69%.
Taking the above factors into account, we expect Rupiah-denominated SBN yields to remain sensitive to external developments and domestic liquidity conditions, particularly amid ongoing efforts to maintain Rupiah stability. We project the weekly range for the 10-year SUN yield for 18–23 May 2026 at 6.60%–6.87%. Based on yield-curve valuation, the following bonds may be attractive for investors: FR0104, FR0087, FR0109, FR0091, and FR0096.
Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for May 18, 2026 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!
IND
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=d9be6969-43c9-4503-be55-64d74804b33b
ENG
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=7cb1bf4c-2993-40d7-b41e-bf86d41eeb89
