Today’s highlights:
A week ahead, markets are anticipating Indonesia’s 1Q26 GDP (TRIM: +5.45% y-y, cons: +5.40% y-y, prev: +5.39% y-y) and Apr’26 CPI (TRIM: +3.41% y-y, cons: +2.70% y-y, prev: +3.48% y-y) The US announced “Project Freedom,” a humanitarian operation to guide trapped neutral ships out of the Strait of Hormuz starting May 5, aimed at partially restoring shipping flows while maintaining the naval blockade and pressure on Iran. Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in Apr’26 — below the 50 thresholds for the first time in nine months — as war-driven cost pressures hit a four-year high, with output dropping at the fastest pace since May’25 amid rising raw material costs, supply shortages, and weakening purchasing power. Meanwhile, Pertamina raised prices on selected non-subsidized fuel products effective 4 May, with Pertamax Turbo up to IDR19,900/l and Pertamina Dex rising to IDR27,900/l, while Pertamax and Pertamina Green 95 remained unchanged.
From the bond market, FR 56, 37, 90, and 59 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 98.06 (-0.9%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 17,346. The 10yr UST yield decreased by -5.9bps to 4.37% and 10yr INDOGBR decreased by -4.4bps to 6.85% – the spread between the two was at 248bps.
Economy: US govt. planned to guide trapped ships through Hormuz while maintaining blockade, easing supply bottlenecks
Donald Trump said the US would begin guiding neutral ships out of the Strait of Hormuz starting 5 May’26 under a humanitarian effort dubbed “Project Freedom.” The operation aimed to assist vessels stranded due to the ongoing blockade and supply disruptions, with support from US Central Command using naval and air assets. The move focused on coordination rather than direct escort, helping restore limited shipping flows while maintaining pressure on Iran. Hundreds of vessels remained stuck in the Gulf, with constrained storage forcing production cuts and driving energy prices higher. Source: Bloomberg
Economy: In Apr’26, Indonesia’s Mfg. PMI fell to contraction (curr: 49.1, prev: 50.1), as war-driven cost pressures hit 4yr high
The figure slipped below the 50 thresholds, signaling contraction for the first time in nine months. Output dropped at the fastest pace since May’25, as firms faced rising raw material prices, supply shortages, and weaker purchasing power. Input cost inflation surged to the highest level in four years, pushing selling prices to rise at the fastest pace since Oct’13. New orders increased only marginally, driven mainly by precautionary buying, while export demand weakened. Firms also reduced employment and purchasing activity amid softer production needs. Business confidence declined to a five-month low, reflecting uncertainty over prolonged Middle East conflict and its impact on costs and supply chains. Source: S&P Global
Economy: Prices of some Pertamina’s non-subsidized fuel products were increased
Starting to be effective on 4 May’26, Pertamax Turbo’s was changed to IDR19,900/l (prev: IDR19,200/l), Dexlite’s to IDR26,000/l (prev: IDR23,600/l), and Pertamina Dex’s to IDR27,900/l (prev: IDR23,900/l). Meanwhile, Pertamax’s and Pertamina Green 95’s prices stayed at IDR12,300/l and IDR12,900/l, respectively. Source: CNBC
Fixed Income: ISSP fully retired dual debt instruments totaling IDR148bnPT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk (SPINDO) completed the full repayment of two debt instruments on 30 Apr’26: its idA-rated SR Bonds II Phase III Year 2025 Series A amounting to IDR71.47bn, and its idA(sy)-rated SR Sukuk Ijarah II Phase III Year 2025 Series A totaling IDR76.69bn. Following the full settlement of both instruments, Pefindo subsequently withdrew the ratings on each. Source: Pefindo.
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