Rupiah assets closed the week on mixed notes on Friday (17-Apr), with equities rebounding, bond yields broadly stable, and the rupiah weakening. The JCI edged up by +0.17% to 7,634 (vs. -0.03% prior; +2.36% YTD), while trading turnover moderated to Rp15.9tn (vs. Rp18.1tn prior; YTD avg.: Rp25.8tn). Meanwhile, foreign investors extended their net sell position to -Rp796bn (vs. -Rp1.21tn prior; YTD: -Rp39.9tn). Regionally, Asian equities softened, with the Nikkei (-1.75%) and the Hang Seng (-0.89%) declining as markets consolidated amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Middle East developments, particularly US-Iran negotiations.
In the bond market, INDOGB yields were broadly steady. Foreign investors recorded net outflows of -Rp931bn, mainly from non-benchmark series, extending the previous day s outflows. Benchmark yields showed limited movement, with the 5-yr FR109 rising to 6.27% (+2.8 bps), the 10-yr FR108 flat at 6.56%, the 15-yr FR106 easing to 6.68% (-0.5 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 edging up to 6.66% (+0.7 bps). Trading activity declined notably, with total volume falling to Rp19tn (vs. Rp30.1tn prior; YTD avg.: Rp33.8tn). The 5-yr FR109 remained the most actively traded (Rp3.7tn), followed by FR104 (Rp2.1tn) and FR87 (Rp1.5tn).
Offshore indicators were mixed, with the 5-yr USD bond yield slightly higher at 4.55%, while CDS tightened further to 83.36 bps. Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to weaken by -0.26% to Rp17,182/USD (-3.0% YTD).
From a positioning perspective, foreign ownership in government bonds stood at Rp857.1tn (12.73% of outstanding) as of 16-Apr. On a YTD basis, domestic investors continued to dominate demand-led by insurance and pension funds (+Rp63.8tn), Bank Indonesia (+Rp59.5tn), and other investors (+Rp45.7tn). Mutual funds (+Rp17.6tn) and onshore banks (+Rp8.5tn) were also net buyers, while foreign investors (-Rp21.5tn) and retail investors (-Rp7.7tn) remained net sellers. Note that the decline in ownership across investor groups was partly driven by the maturity of FR0086 on 15-Apr, totaling Rp134.5tn (coupon: 5.5%). Based on our estimates, onshore banks held the largest share of FR0086 at around Rp67.7tn (50.3%), followed by mutual funds (Rp18.3tn), insurance and pension funds (Rp15.6tn), other investors (Rp15.2tn), and foreign investors (Rp12.4tn).
On a weekly basis, rupiah assets were mixed. The JCI gained +2.36% WoW (vs. +6.08% prior), while the 10-yr INDOGB yield edged up by +1.3 bps WoW (vs. -8 bps prior), and the rupiah weakened by -0.49% WoW. Foreign investors recorded equity outflows of -Rp2.7tn WoW (vs. -Rp3.3tn prior) but remained supportive in government bonds with inflows of +Rp4.6tn (+Rp5.8tn prior).
Bank Indonesia will hold its policy meeting on 21 22 April. Based on our latest polling (171 respondents), the majority (77%) expect BI to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.75%, while 23% anticipate a 25-bps hike to 5.00%. BI has maintained its policy rate at 4.75% over the past six months. Amid ongoing rupiah pressures, BI continues to rely on FX intervention across spot, NDF, and DNDF markets. FX reserves declined by USD 3.7bn to USD 148.2bn in March (from USD 151.9bn in February), with import coverage easing slightly to 6.0 months (vs. 6.1 months previously). At the same time, BI has been gradually enhancing the attractiveness of domestic assets, as reflected in higher SRBI rates, which have increased by around 79 bps year-to-date.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity moderated on Friday (17-Apr), with total volume declining to Rp5.7tn (vs. Rp8.5tn prior or YTD avg.: Rp7.3tn).
The SMOPPM02ACN1 series (maturing on 25-Mar-28), rated idA+(sy), was the most actively traded with a total volume of Rp263bn. Its price declined to 102.26 (-0.84%), while the yield rose to 8.72% (+47.87 bps). This was followed by the SIPTRO01DCN1 series (maturing on 13-Dec-31), rated idA+(sy) with a volume of Rp250bn. Its price declined to 103.36 (-0.03%), while the yield increased to 8.74% (+0.51 bps). Close behind was the WISL01ACN3 series (maturing on 27-Mar-27), rated idA with a volume of Rp220bn. Its price rose to 99.97 (+0.02%), while the yield declined to 5.78% (-2.18 bps).
Over the week, average daily corporate bond trading volume declined to Rp7.1tn (vs. Rp8.6tn in the prior week). The SMSMII03ACN2 series (maturing on 7-Dec-26), rated idAAA(sy), emerged as the most actively traded corporate bond, recording total weekly trading volume of Rp894bn.
Pefindo has assigned idA rating with stable outlook to PT Cemindo Gemilang Tbk (Cemindo). According to Pefindo, the rating reflects Cemindo s strong presence in its core market and its integrated operated facilities. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by Cemindo s high leverage as well as the pricing pressure amid intense competition.
Pefindo has assigned idA rating with stable outlook to PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Lampung (Bank Lampung). According to Pefindo, the rating reflects Bank Lampung s captive market in Lampung province, very strong capitalization indicators, and strong asset quality from the consumer loan segment. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by its concentrated funding profile and intense competition for the productive loan segment.
