Full Report:
EN : bit.ly/FIMF20260414en
IN : bit.ly/FIMF20260414in
Market Brief
Indonesia’s local-currency bond market opened the week on a mixed footing, with government bond yields moving within a narrow 1–5 bps range across the curve. The benchmark 10-year yield edged higher by 3 bps to 6.60%. On the currency front, the Rupiah remained broadly stable at IDR17,105/USD (vs. IDR17,104/USD in the previous session). Secondary market activity improved meaningfully, with outright transaction volumes rising to IDR17.6 trillion from IDR11.1 trillion previously, while corporate bond turnover reached IDR5.0 trillion. In the offshore space, Indonesia’s USD-denominated sovereign bonds posted a modest rally. Yields on INDO-31, INDO-36, and INDO-54 declined to 4.67% (-2 bps), 5.23% (-1 bp), and 5.60% (-1 bp), respectively.
U.S. Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, supported by improved global risk sentiment and renewed optimism surrounding diplomatic developments in the Middle East, which boosted demand for duration. By the close, yields on the 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y USTs declined to 3.78% (-2 bps), 3.91% (-3 bps), 4.29% (-3 bps), and 4.90% (-1 bp), respectively. In contrast, European sovereign yields trended higher, with 10-year yields rising to 3.09% (+2 bps) in Germany, 4.87% (+4 bps) in the UK, and 3.75% (+4 bps) in France. Market sentiment improved despite the absence of a formal agreement in the latest U.S.–Iran negotiations over the weekend. While the U.S. proceeded with a blockade on Iranian oil shipments, President Trump signaled that Iran had reached out to resume talks, raising expectations for a potential diplomatic resolution. This helped alleviate immediate escalation risks, even as oil prices remained elevated—briefly surpassing USD100/bbl before easing slightly. On the macro front, markets continued to assess last week’s inflation data, which pointed to moderating core price pressures despite a headline inflation uptick driven by energy prices. Meanwhile, U.S. housing indicators suggested weakening demand, with existing home sales declining 3.6% MoM to 3.98 million units (vs. 4.01 million consensus; prior 4.13 million), reflecting the impact of elevated mortgage rates and softer consumer sentiment.
In the near term, Indonesia’s bond market is expected to maintain a modestly constructive bias, underpinned by the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields amid improving geopolitical sentiment. Investor focus will also shift to today’s government bond auction, which carries an indicative issuance target of IDR36.0 trillion. The auction outcome will serve as a key barometer of demand under current global conditions, with strong investor’s bids likely reinforcing market stability.
Fixed Income News
• The Government of Indonesia is set to conduct a conventional bond auction today, targeting indicative issuance of IDR36.0 trillion.
• PEFINDO has affirmed its idA- rating to PT Bank Victoria International Tbk (BVIC) and its outstanding bond.
