Today’s highlights:

Oil price exceeded USD110/bbl, following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s Supreme Leader. On top of that, Iran’s drones struck Bahrain’s water desalination plant, offering a new angle in war—destroying civil livelihood. From domestic, the govt. extended subsidized housing loans tenor to 30yrs (prev: 20yrs), reducing financial burden for low-income households. A.o. 6 Mar’26, THR realization reached IDR3.12tn

From the bond market, FR 56, 37, 99, and 90 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 98.99 (-0.3%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 16,925. The 10yr UST yield increased by +0.2bps to 4.14% and 10yr INDOGBR increased by +1.3bps to 6.61% – the spread between the two was at 247bps.

Economy: oil surged above USD108/bbl as Middle East conflict intensified and disrupted global supply

Global oil prices surged sharply as escalating conflict in the Middle East raised concerns over supply disruptions and tanker flows through key shipping routes. Brent crude climbed about +17% to USD108.42/bbl, while West Texas Intermediate rose about +19% to USD108.33/bbl, reflecting heightened risk premiums as traders assessed the impact of the widening war and potential disruptions to energy exports from the region. The surge came amid fears that the conflict could constrain shipments through critical chokepoints and tighten global supply, prompting strong buying in crude markets. The sharp rally also fueled concerns about broader economic implications, including inflation risks and rising energy costs for major importing economies. Markets remained highly sensitive to further developments in the conflict, with analysts warning that continued disruptions to oil infrastructure or shipping could push prices even higher in the near term. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: Indonesia’s govt. extended the repayment tenor of subsidized housing loans to 30yrs

This was part of efforts to improve housing affordability and support the national housing program. Minister of Housing and Settlement Areas Maruarar Sirait said the policy was implemented following Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto’s directive to reduce the financial burden for low-income households seeking home ownership. By lengthening the tenor, monthly mortgage installments are expected to become more affordable, allowing more households to access subsidized housing under the govt.’s housing assistance schemes. The policy forms part of broader efforts to accelerate the development of affordable housing and support the govt.’s target of expanding home ownership among low- and middle-income groups. Authorities said the longer tenor was designed to improve mortgage accessibility while sustaining demand for the housing sector. Source: Kontan

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Research Division