Yield Hunter Diary

Supply Shock and the War

Dear Yield Hunter,

The Iran shock is no longer just “headline risk.” The Strait of Hormuz is a real operational chokepoint: the US EIA estimates flows through Hormuz averaged ~20mn bpd in 2024, roughly ~20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. That means even a partial disruption quickly turns into a global macro variable: inflation expectations, real rates, and risk-off positioning. But before we panic, let us begin with calm; This shock will likely be temporary until new consensus emerges.

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