Today’s highlights:

Gold exceeded USD4.5k/oz for the first time ever, on the back of Venezuela’s case and Fed Rate cut prospects. On monetary front, Trump strongly expected his Fed Chair to lower rate, even when economy was fine. He was concerned that, when economy went well, market sell-off took place instead, signaling market fear over rate hike. On data release, US GDP was above consensus last quarter (curr: +4.3% q-q, cons: +3.3% q-q, prev: +3.8% q-q). Exports jumped by +8.8% q-q (prev: -1.8% q-q), as well as personal consumption expenditures (curr: +3.5% q-q, prev: +2.5% q-q).

From the bond market, FR 84, 86, 56, and 37 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 97.94 (-0.3%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 16,787. The 10yr UST yield increased by +0.0bps to 4.16% and 10yr INDOGBR decreased by -1.1bps to 6.15% – the spread between the two was at 198bps.

Economy: Gold topped USD4.5k/oz, hitting all-time high one more time

Gold, along with silver and platinum, reached all-time peaks altogether. The price action built on top Venezuela’s case, where US govt. blockaded oil tankers going from and to the country. At the same time, markets took a view that the Fed would turn more dovish next year, betting over 3x more rate cuts. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: Trump strongly expected the next Fed Chair to cut rates

Trump said that the next Fed Chair would lower interest rates, even when the economy was doing well. Anyone who disagreed with him would not serve as the Chair, he added. Furthermore, Trump was concerned over the fact that, when data demonstrated solid economy, the financial markets went down. Eyes were on potential rate hike instead, to tame inflation. Along the line, US Secretary of Treasury, Scott Bessent, indicated that the Fed’s inflation target may change. It could be changed to a range, e.g. 1.5—2.5% or 1.0—3.0%, once the current 2% target was reached. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: In 3Q25, US annl. GDP was above consensus (curr: +4.3% q-q, cons: +3.3% q-q, prev: +3.8% q-q)

Personal consumption expenditures were the primary driver (curr: +3.5% q-q, prev: +2.5% q-q). The improvement was quite broad-based, reflected in goods (curr: +3.1% q-q, prev: +3.1% q-q) and services (curr: +3.7% q-q, prev: +2.6% q-q). Exports demonstrated solid pick up as well (curr: +8.8% q-q, prev: -1.8% q-q), due to toned down trade policies. In a similar manner, federal govt. expenditures rose by +2.9% q-q (prev: -5.3% q-q). Source: US BEA