Rupiah-denominated assets closed weaker on Thursday. The JCI fell 0.68% to 8,618.2, with the equity turnover easing to Rp23.7tn (vs. Rp37.7tn prior; YTD avg.: Rp17.8tn). Despite the index s decline, foreign investors continued to add exposure, recording net equity inflows of Rp1.02tn (vs. Rp0.27tn prior), trimming the YTD outflows to Rp25.1tn. Regionally, Asian markets were mixed: the Hang Seng index edged up 0.12% (YTD: +29.9%) amid pressure on technology stocks from valuation concerns, while the Nikkei index fell 1.03% (YTD: +24.7%) ahead of the Bank of Japan s policy decision.
In the bond market, INDOGB yields moved slightly higher across the curve concentrated in the short-to-mid tenors despite modest foreign inflows of Rp0.21tn. The 5-yr FR104 rose to 5.60% (+2.4 bps), the 10-yr FR103 to 6.14% (+2.3 bps), the 15-yr FR106 to 6.41% (+0.5 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 to 6.53% (+0.2 bps). Offshore, the 5-yr USD INDON yield inched up to 4.42% (+1.0 bps), while Indonesia s 5-yr CDS widened slightly to 70.33 bps. The rupiah softened by 0.13% to Rp16,710/USD (YTD: 3.77%).
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity moderated on Thursday (18-Dec), with total volume declining to Rp15.5tn (vs. Rp24.4tn on 17-Dec). The figure fell below the prior week s daily average of Rp21.5tn, remained below the 2025 YTD average of Rp32.1tn, and also trailed the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn.The 8.2-yr PBS029 series (maturing on 15-Mar-34) led market activity, recording Rp2.3tn in trading volume. Its price advanced to 102.40 (+1.59%), driving the yield sharply lower to 6.00% (-24.76 bps). This was followed by the 10.3-yr FR0108 series (maturing on 15-Apr-36), which recorded Rp1.6tn in trading volume. Its price inched up slightly to 102.90 (+0.02%), with the yield edging lower to 6.12% (-0.27 bps).
Based on the DMO data as of 16-Dec, foreign holdings of government bonds continued to increase, recording Rp874.8tn, equivalent to 13.34% of the outstanding. Year-to-date, domestic banks remain the largest net buyers (+Rp150.8tn), followed by Bank Indonesia (+Rp147.2tn), insurance and pension funds (+Rp140.2tn), mutual funds (+Rp55.3tn), and retail investors (+Rp29.3tn). Foreign investors remain net sellers on a YTD basis ( Rp1.8tn), although the outflow pace has continued to ease, alongside retail investors ( Rp3.6tn).
In the latest APBN KiTA, Indonesia s fiscal deficit widened to Rp560.3tn ( 2.35% of GDP) in 11M25 from Rp479.7tn ( 2.01% of GDP) in 10M25, reflecting November s monthly deficit of Rp80.6tn, smaller than October s Rp108.2tn as spending slowed. November s government expenditure fell 5.6% YoY and -11.0% MoM after strong growth in October (+17% YoY and 31% MoM), driven by lower material, social, and other spending, bringing the cumulative spending to Rp2,911.8tn (+0.6% YoY), or 82.5% of the full-year target below last year s pace (86.2% in 11M24). On the revenue side, November s receipts declined by 2.2% YoY and 3.4% MoM, mainly due to weaker non-tax revenue, although the cumulative contraction improved to 5.7% YoY in 11M25 (vs -6.0% YoY in 10M25). The total revenues reached Rp2,351.5tn, or 82.1% of the annual outlook and below the historical run rate (vs. 87.4% in 11M24), while the excess financing narrowed sharply to Rp13.2tn, down from Rp53.2tn in 10M25 and Rp27tn in 11M24. With both revenues and spending running below their usual seasonal patterns and December spending likely to remain contained, we project the full-year fiscal deficit at ca. 2.8% of GDP, broadly in line with the Ministry of Finance s outlook.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity also moderated on Thursday (18-Dec), with total volume easing to Rp3.0tn (vs. Rp5.6tn on 17-Dec). The figure remained well below the prior week s daily average of Rp6.1tn and fell below the 2025 YTD average of Rp4.0tn, while remaining above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.
The SMFP06CN4 series (maturing on 22-Feb-28), rated idAAA, led the segment with Rp202bn in trading volume. The bond s price inched up to 102.20 (+0.06%), pulling the yield lower to 5.77% (-4.68 bps). This was followed by the PJAA03ACN1 series (maturing on 9-Jul-27), rated idA+, which recorded Rp135bn in trading volume. Its price rose to 101.86, driving the yield sharply lower to 7.22% (-120.32 bps).
Pefindo has assigned idAAA rating to PT Bank mandiri (Persero) Tbk s Shelf Registration Sustainability Bond I with a maximum amount of Rp20tn. Pefindo has also affirmed idAAA ratings to Bank Mandiri and its outstanding bonds, and affirmed idAA rating to Bank Mandiri s outstanding Subordinated Medium-Term Notes (MTN) II. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable. According to Pefindo, the corporate rating is mainly driven by the very strong likelihood of support from its controlling shareholder (the Indonesian government). Meanwhile, the standalone credit profile reflects its superior business position, very strong capitalization, and very strong liquidity profile. However, these strengths are partly offset by tight competition amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
