Rupiah assets traded mixed on Monday (15-Dec). The JCI edged down 0.1% to 8,650 (+1.7% MTD; +22.2% YTD), pressured by weaker sentiment across Asia following China s disappointing economic data, which renewed concerns over regional growth. Losses were led by the energy and basic materials sectors. The market turnover remained active at Rp33.4tn, lifting the 2025 daily average to Rp17.5tn. Meanwhile, foreign investors recorded net inflows of Rp247.5bn, bringing the MTD inflows to Rp4.2tn, although the YTD flows remained negative at Rp25.4tn. Regionally, Asian equities closed mostly lower, with the Nikkei down 1.3% and Shanghai down 0.6%, as China s fixed asset investment contracted by 2.6% YoY (Jan Nov) and industrial production growth slowed to 4.8% YoY in November.
In the bond market, INDOGB continued to strengthen, pushing yields lower across the curve ahead of the final bond auction of the year, despite foreign investors recording Rp1.3tn of net outflows after strong inflows the previous session. The 5-yr FR104 yield eased to 5.59% (-2.5 bps), the 10-yr FR103 fell to 6.15% (-1.5 bps), while the 15-yr FR106 and 20-yr FR107 declined to 6.43% (-1.3 bps) and 6.53% (-0.9 bps), respectively. Offshore, the 5-yr USD INDON yield edged up slightly to 4.45% (+0.5 bps), while Indonesia s 5-yr CDS tightened further to 71.29 (-1.63 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah weakened modestly by 0.17% to Rp16,668/USD.
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity picked up slightly on Monday (15-Dec), with total volume ticking up to Rp16.2tn (vs. Rp12.5tn on 12-Dec). Despite the improvement, turnover remained below the prior week s daily average of Rp21.5tn, the 2025 YTD average of Rp32.5tn, and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) continued to lead market activity, recording Rp2.4tn in trading volume (vs. Rp1.6tn previously). Its price inched up to 103.65 (+0.14%), with the yield easing to 5.58% (-3.80 bps). This was followed by the 6.3-yr FR0091 series (maturing on 15-Apr-32), which recorded Rp1.4tn in trades. Its price also edged higher to 102.37 (+0.61%), sending the yield lower to 5.92% (-11.79 bps).
The DMO data as of 12-Dec showed foreign government bond holdings ticking up slightly to Rp873.6tn (13.32% of outstanding). Year-to-date, domestic banks remain the largest buyers (+Rp152.4tn), followed by Bank Indonesia (+Rp146.5tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp140.3tn), mutual funds (+Rp55.4tn), and others (+Rp29.0tn). Foreign investors remain net sellers YTD (-Rp3.0tn), although the pace of outflows continues to slow, alongside retail investors (-Rp3.3tn).
Looking ahead, the government will hold the final conventional bond auction of 2025 on 16-Dec, with a smaller issuance target of Rp15tn (vs. Rp23tn previously). Instruments on offer include SPNs (1-mo, 3-mo, and 12-mo) and reopened FR series across the curve (5.2-yr FR109, 10.3-yr FR108, 14.7-yr FR106, 19.7-yr FR107, 28.6-yr FR102, and 38.6-yr FR105). We expect onshore demand to remain solid, supported by ample rupiah liquidity, with incoming bids projected at Rp72tn 82tn.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity surged on Monday (15-Dec), with total volume jumping to Rp9.2tn (vs. Rp6.0tn on 11-Dec), marking the highest daily trading volume since 9-Dec-25 (Rp8.7tn). The figure surpassed the prior week s daily average of Rp6.1tn and stood well above both the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.9tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.
The SIBALI01ACN3 series (maturing on 15-Dec-26), rated idA(sy), led the segment with Rp903bn in trading volume. Its price slipped slightly to 99.95 (-0.10%), pushing the yield higher to 6.55% (+10.41 bps). This was followed by the SIBALI01BCN3 series (maturing on 5-Dec-28), also rated idA(sy), which booked Rp675bn in trades. Its price edged down to 98.36 (-1.64%), driving the yield sharply higher to 7.87% (+62.36 bps).
