Fixed InSight

Today’s highlights:

In Nov’25, US Consumer Sentiment hit ~3.5yr low (curr: 51.0, cons: 50.3, prev: 53.6), driven by broad-based weakening. Views on personal finance and job loss deteriorated by much. On a separate occasion, NY Fed Chair—John Williams—tended to support rate cut next month. He was seen to be proxy of Powell’s thinking. From domestic, a.o. 2nd week of Nov’25, PEFINDO recorded corp. bond issuance of +IDR11tn mtd. BI assessed our corp. bonds market to lag behind others. The outstanding level-to-GDP was at 2.1%, in compared to South Korea (curr: 60.7%), Singapore (curr: 27.06%), and Japan (curr: 16.84%). From Danantara, the institution planned to issue Patriot Bond II, with issuance value set at IDR15tn. The details remained to be seen.

From the bond market, FR 84, 86, 56, and 99 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 100.18 0.0%. Rupiah was appreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 16,716. The 10yr UST yield decreased by -2.1bps at 4.06% and 10yr INDOGBR increased by +1.5bps at 6.18% – the spread between the two was at 212bps.

Economy: In Nov’25, US Consumer Sentiment was the lowest since Jun’22 (curr: 51.0, cons: 50.3, prev: 53.6)

The primary factor was Current Economic Condition, recorded at all-time low (curr: 51.1 (prev: 58.6), with views on personal finance plummeting to 66 (prev: 78)—the lowest level in 16 yrs. On the other hand, Consumer Expectations improved to 51.0 (prev: 50.3). A year ahead inflation view dropped to +4.5% y-y (prev: +4.6% y-y), followed by its long-run counterpart (curr: +3.4% y-y, prev: +3.9% y-y). Source: Univ. of Michigan

Economy: PEFINDO records Issuance of Corporate Bonds at IDR11tn in November 2025

Across the first and second week of November 2025, PEFINDO has recorded significant activity in total issuance of corporate bonds, reaching a total issued value of more than IDR11tn. The first week of November saw total issuance of corporate bonds by four companies reach IDR5.12tn and in the second week of November, three companies also issued corporate bonds totalling IDR6.27tn. Source: Kontan

Economy: Danantara plans a subsequent bond issuance, named Patriot Bond II.

Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund, BPI Danantara has planned to re-issue the Patriot Bond under the name of Patriot Bond II to distinguish from the bond’s previous issuance. BPI Danantara plans to issue IDR15tn for the Patriot Bond II, differentiating itself from the first issuance of the Patriot Bond which previously amounted to IDR50tn. Danantara plans to issue the Patriot Bond II as soon as the start of next year but has yet to release any information regarding the focus and yield of the Patriot Bond II. With the previous Patriot Bond only having an annual yield of 2%, investors are skeptical regarding the second issuance of the Patriot Bond, citing that if the annual yield or rate of return towards investors remain small then it would not only provide a significant risk of opportunity loss for investors which could have instead invested in government bonds but may also be detrimental to the economy due to crowding out as funds which could have instead be directed to the expansion and development of the private sector are instead absorbed by Danantara. As of now, if the aim or focus of the Patriot Bond II remains unclear, the bond could likely be classified as a high risk bond especially if not guranteed by the government and followed by the fluctuation of Danantara’s cash flow and project or regulation risks. Source: Kontan