Today’s highlights:
A week ahead, markets are anticipating for Fed Chair Powell’s speech, as well as China’s Sep’25 CPI (cons: -0.1% y-y, prev: -0.4% y-y). Trump’s threat was toned down, with JD Vance signaled US openness for negotiation with China. Recently, Trump threatened 130% tariff for China’s goods, starting effective on 1 Nov’25. This was in response to earlier China’s initiatives, which planned to restrict rare earth exports further. From domestic, MoF Purbaya aimed for 12% in tax ratio next year, while it was not officially written in 2026 RAPBN.
From the bond market, FR 84, 86, 99, and 37 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 98.98 (-0.6%). Rupiah was depreciated by 1.1% at USDIDR at 16,482. The 10yr UST yield was down by -10.6bps at 4.03% and 10yr INDOGBR was down by -1.0bps at 6.12% – the spread between the two was at 208bps.
Economy: Trump signaled openness to negotiate with China
Marks from Trump and Vance suggested that US was trying to reach a deal with China. The statements followed recent Trump’s initiatives. The US President would impose additional 100% tariff for China’s goods. The total tariff imposed on China’s goods would be 130%, starting effective on 1 Nov’25. US would also impose export control on its critical software. This policy was in response to earlier China’s initiatives, which added 5 more names on top of 7 restricted rare earth metals, where there were only 18 rare earth metals in the world. China’s govt. would restrict exports of technology to refine rare earth as well, while China’s citizens were prohibited to support rare earth-related activities overseas. Most of these policies would be effective on 1 Dec’25. Furthermore, Trump said that his meeting with Xi later this month was in jeopardy, saying that there was no reason to do so. Source: Bloomberg
Economy: Indonesia’s MoF unofficially targeted 12% in tax ratio next year
Although the number was not written in 2026 State Budget Draft (RAPBN), MoF Purbaya aimed to raise the tax ratio to 12% next year, while the figure ranged in 9—10% over the past decade. Furthermore, Purbaya would implement reward-and-punishment method for Directorate General of Taxes. It should be noted that 2026 RAPBN targeted 9.17% in tax ration. Source: Kontan
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Research Division
PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.
