Oktober 10, 2025

Bond Yields Extend Decline Even as Foreign Outflows Persist

All rupiah assets closed higher on Thursday (9-Oct). The JCI rebounded by +1.0% to 8,251 (vs. -0.04% prior), bringing its YTD performance to +16.5%. The turnover remained steady at Rp29.5tn (vs. Rp29.5tn prior), well above the YTD daily average of Rp15.8tn. Meanwhile, foreign investors returned to equities, posting net inflows of +Rp1tn (vs. -Rp455.3bn prior), trimming the YTD outflows to -Rp54.2tn. Regionally, Asian equities also strengthened, supported by optimism over further Fed easing; the Nikkei 225 Index rose +1.8% (YTD: +21.8%), and the Shanghai Composite Index gained +1.3% (YTD: +17.4%).

In the bond market, INDOGBs extended their rally even as foreign investors recorded sizeable net outflows of -Rp2.33tn (vs. -Rp0.11tn prior), based on the CTP PLTE data. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 closed at 104.71 (+0.14%), yielding 5.36% (-3.5 bps); the 10-yr FR103 at 104.75 (+0.46%), yielding 6.10% (-6.4 bps); the 15-yr FR106 at 104.53 (+0.10%), yielding 6.64% (-1.1 bps); and the 20-yr FR107 at 104.59 (+0.58%), yielding 6.70% (-5.4 bps). Offshore, the 5-yr USD global bond yield was largely unchanged at 4.39% (-0.1 bps), while Indonesia s 5-yr CDS widened slightly to 78.53 bps (+0.22 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah firmed slightly by +0.09% to Rp16,545/USD (vs. -0.12% prior; YTD: -2.75%).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity eased on Thursday (9-Oct) following two consecutive days of heightened market activity, with total volume slipping slightly to Rp42.5tn (vs. Rp50.5tn on 8-Oct). The figure remained well above the prior week s daily average of Rp43.8tn, as well as both the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp32.4tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) continued to dominate market activity, booking Rp7.8tn in trading volume (vs. Rp10.1tn previously). Its price inched up to 104.85 (+0.19%), bringing the yield lower to 5.33% (-4.73 bps). This was followed by the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35), which recorded Rp5.1tn in trading volume (vs. Rp8.0tn in the previous day). Its price edged higher to 104.90 (+0.48%), compressing the yield to 6.08% (-6.69 bps).

As of 6-Oct, foreign ownership of government bonds stood at Rp900tn (13.93% of outstanding). Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has remained the largest net buyer (+Rp143.5tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp113.6tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp72.9tn), others (+Rp29.6tn), foreigners (+Rp23.3tn), mutual funds (+Rp20.2tn), and retail investors (+Rp16.7tn).

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, bond trading activity remained elevated on Thursday (9-Oct), with total volume holding steady at Rp4.2tn (vs. Rp4.2tn on 8-Oct). The figure stayed below the prior week s daily average of Rp4.7tn, yet stood comfortably above both the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.9tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The SMDSSA01BCN4 series (maturing on 9-Oct-30), rated idAA(sy), which debuted in the secondary market, led the segment with Rp1,110bn in trading volume. The bond traded at 99.75, yielding 6.93%. This was followed by the DSSA01CN4 series (maturing on 9-Oct-30), rated idAA, which also debuted in the secondary market and posted Rp261bn in trading volume. It traded at 99.75, yielding 6.93%.

Pefindo has affirmed the rating for PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk (WSKT) at idSD . Pefindo has also affirmed the rating for its shelf-registered (SR) Bond III Phase IV at idD as WSKT has yet to obtain restructuring approval from bondholders. At the same time, Pefindo has affirmed the ratings for the Company s SR Bond III Phase II, Phase III, and SR Bond IV Phase I at idB , and affirmed the ratings for its bond III and bond IV at idAAA(gg) as well as its Sukuk Mudharabah I at idAAA(sy)(gg) which reflects the full, unconditional, and irrevocable guarantee from the government of Indonesia.

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