September 8, 2025

INDOGB Rebounds, While JCI and Rupiah Weaken

Rupiah assets closed mixed on Thursday. The JCI slipped by -0.23% to 7,867.35 (vs. +1.08% prior; YTD +12.01%), with the turnover easing to Rp14.1tn (vs. Rp18.3tn prior; YTD average: Rp14.4tn). Furthermore, foreign investors continued to sell, though at a slower pace, posting net outflows of Rp305bn (vs. -Rp1.39tn prior; YTD: -Rp55.1tn). Regionally, Asian equities ended mixed; the Nikkei 225 Index gained +1.53% to 42,580.3 (YTD: +8.46%), while the Hang Seng Index fell -1.12% to 25,058.5 (YTD: +24.76%) as investors locked in recent gains.

On the bond side, INDOGB yields declined across the curve, except for the 20-yr tenor. The 5-yr FR104 closed at 103.28 (yield: 5.71%, -1.8 bps), the 10-yr FR103 at 102.71 (yield: 6.37%, -0.4 bps), the 15-yr FR106 at 103.86 (yield: 6.71%, -0.1 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 edged up to 102.93 (yield: 6.85%, +0.5 bps). In USD debt, the 5-yr global bond (Mar-2031) rose to 87.36 (yield: 4.46%, -2.8 bps), while the 5-yr CDS tightened further to 71.0 bps (-1.1 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah weakened slightly by -0.03% to Rp16,420/USD (YTD: -1.93%).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity softened further on Thursday (4-Sep), with total volume easing to Rp24.8tn (vs. Rp28.0tn on 3-Sep). The figure fell below the current week s daily average of Rp33.2tn and remained under the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp31.4tn, though it stayed comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) was the most actively traded, recording Rp6.6tn in volume. Its price edged up to 103.38 (+0.19%), lowering the yield to 5.69% (-4.71 bps). This was followed by the 5.5-yr FR0109 series (maturing on 15-Mar-31), which booked Rp2.8tn in trading volume. The bond s price slipped slightly to 100.70 (-0.05%), nudging the yield higher to 5.73% (+1.06 bps).

Flows data based on the latest DMO data (as of 3-Sep) showed that foreign ownership of government bonds declined to Rp944.7tn (14.75% of outstanding) as of 3-Sep. YTD, BI has been the largest net buyer (+Rp127tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp85.3tn), foreign investors (+Rp68tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp41.4tn), retail (+Rp26.5tn), other investors (+Rp10tn), and mutual funds (+Rp8.2tn).

For the week, performance was mixed: equities rose +0.49% (vs. -0.34% prior), while the 10-yr INDOGB yield rose +8.6 bps (vs. +0.5 bps prior). The USD INDOGB yield ticked up +1.3 bps (vs. +1.2 bps prior), while the rupiah strengthened by +0.22% (vs. -0.68% prior). Foreign investors, however, reported net outflows of -Rp4.2tn in equities (vs. +Rp1.5tn prior) and -Rp2.6tn in bonds (vs. -Rp0.8tn prior).

Over the week, average daily government bond trading volume declined to Rp33.2tn (vs. Rp41.1tn in the prior week). The 5-yr FR0104 series remained the most actively traded benchmark, although its total weekly volume fell to Rp24.2tn (vs. Rp31.3tn previously).

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity weakened on Thursday (4-Sep), with total volume declining to Rp3.8tn (vs. Rp5.5tn on 3-Sep). The figure fell below both the current week s daily average of Rp4.4tn and the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.93tn, yet it remained well above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The JSMR03CCN2 series (maturing on 4-Sep-35), rated idAA, emerged as the most actively traded corporate bond with Rp456bn in volume. It traded at 100.00, yielding 7.15%. This was followed by the ASDF06BCN5 series (maturing on 14-Mar-28), rated AAA(idn), which posted Rp200bn in trading volume. Its price inched up to 101.72 (+0.29%), compressing the yield to 6.01% (-12.69 bps).

Over the week, average daily trading volume in corporate bonds edged up to Rp4.4tn (vs. Rp4.1tn in the prior week). The 0.2-yr SMARMA01 series (maturing on 24-Nov-25), rated irA-, stood out as the most actively traded corporate bond, registering a total weekly volume of Rp672bn.

Pefindo has assigned idAA- rating with stable outlook to PT Bank Panin Dubai Syariah Tbk (PDSB). According to Pefindo, the rating reflects a very strong likelihood of support from PT Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk (Panin Bank or Parent). Meanwhile, PDSB s standalone credit profile does not drive the rating, which reflects its above-average market position, strong capitalization, exposure to concentration risk, weak asset quality profile, and below-average profitability indicators.

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