Today’s highlights:
Markets were anticipating further Fed Rate cuts, driven by weak CPI last month (curr: +2.7% y-y, cons: +2.8% y-y, prev: +2.7% y-y), following slow hiring data. On a separate occasion, Bessent called out for -50bps rate cut, hoping Stephen Miran—President-chosen Fed Governor—to fill in the position ASAP. Meanwhile, 10yr UST edged down, due to concerns over rate cuts’ effects on inflation. From domestic, DJP stated that, a.o. 11 Aug’25, tax revenues merely hit 45.51% of State Budget, recorded at IDR996tn, declining by -16.72% y-y. On monetary front, BI would begin the trial of Payment ID next month. The identification would be integrated to NIK, but the central bank would not track individual transactions. It would use Payment ID for tracking growth source by sector and region.
From the bond market, FR 84, 86, SDG001, and 76 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 98.10 (-0.4%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 16,290. The 10yr UST yield was up by +0.4bps at 4.29% and 10yr INDOGBR was down by -0.7bps at 6.43% – the spread between the two was at 214bps.
Economy: In Jul’25, US CPI was below consensus (curr: +2.7% y-y, cons: +2.8% y-y, prev: +2.7% y-y)
The downward driver came from Food (curr: +2.9% y-y, prev: +3.0% y-y) and Energy (curr: -1.6% y-y, prev: -0.8% y-y). Meanwhile, Medical Care and Transportation Services saw inflation pick-up, standing at +4.3% y-y (prev: +3.4% y-y) and +3.5% y-y (prev: +3.4% y-y), respectively. Thus, core CPI still stood at solid pace (curr: +3.1% y-y, cons; +3.0% y-y, prev: +2.9% y-y). Source: US BLS
Economy: A.o. 11 Aug’25, tax revenues hit 45.51% of State Budget
According to Wet Java III Regional Office of Directorate General of Taxes (DJP), tax revenues were recorded at IDR996tn up to 11 Aug’25. The figure also represented -16.72% y-y. While IDR831.3tn were realized in 30 Jun’25, over the past 1.5mo merely saw IDR165.2tn in tax to be realized. Source: Kontan
Economy: BI would trial Payment ID in Banyuwangi next month
Bank Indonesia (BI) was developing Payment ID, a unique code integrated with the National Identification Number (NIK) to map economic growth by sector and region. The pilot would begin in Banyuwangi next month, in collaboration with the govt. for non-cash social assistance distribution. Under the Payment System Blueprint, nationwide implementation of Payment ID is targeted to be launched in 2029. Source: Kontan
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Research Division
PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.
