Juli 21, 2025

Rupiah Assets Rebound Across the Board on Friday

All rupiah-denominated assets closed in positive territory on Friday (18-Jul), with gains driven by renewed demand for Indonesian Government Bonds (INDOGBs), a firmer currency, and stronger equity performance. Government bond prices rebounded across the curve, supported by foreign inflows totaling +Rp0.21tn (vs. outflows of -Rp0.9tn the day before), according to CTP PLTE data. According to Bloomberg, the 5Y FR104 closed at 101.65 (yield: 6.11%, -4.3 bps), the 10Y FR103 at 101.64 (yield: 6.52%, -4.7 bps), the 15Y FR106 at 102.47 (yield: 6.86%, -2.4 bps), and the 20Y FR107 at 101.67 (yield: 6.97%, -1.7 bps). Indonesia s 10-yr USD bond due in Mar-2031 went up to 86.54 (yield: 4.59%, -4.9 bps), while the 5Y CDS narrowed further to 72.79 (-2.06 bps). Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah rebounded, appreciating against the USD by +0.25% to Rp16,290/USD (vs. -0.33% previously, or YTD: -1.11%).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity remained elevated on Friday (18-Jul), with volume rising slightly to Rp32.6tn (vs. Rp26.1tn on 17-Jul). The figure stood well above the current week s average of Rp34.5tn, the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp30.1tn, and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) led the market, recording a trading volume of Rp6.6tn. Its price held largely steady at 101.29 (-0.01), with the yield inching up to 6.57% (+0.13 bps). This was followed by the 5.0-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30), which posted a trading volume of Rp6.3tn. The bond s price edged up to 101.74 (+0.04%), pushing the yield slightly lower to 6.09% (-0.96 bps).

Based on the latest DMO data (as of 16-Jul), foreign holdings in government bonds were stable at Rp933.1tn, or 14.71% of the total outstanding. Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has been the biggest net buyer of government bonds (amounting to +Rp107.8tn), followed by foreign investors (+Rp56.4tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp52.6tn), retail investors (+Rp43.4tn), onshore banks (+Rp35.3tn), and other investors (+Rp10.2tn). Meanwhile, the only investor type that was a net seller was mutual funds, with a net sell of -Rp1.9tn.

On the equity side, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rallied by +0.34% (vs. +1.32% previously) and closed at 7,311.92, extending its YTD gain to +4.55%. The daily equity turnover rebounded to Rp16.92tn (vs. Rp14.27tn previously), and it was also above the YTD average of Rp13.2tn. In regional markets, the Nikkei 225 Index fell by -0.21% to 39,819.11 (vs. +0.60% previously, or YTD: +1.53%), while the Hang Seng Index rebounded strongly, surging by +1.33% to 24,825.66 (vs. -0.08% previously, or YTD: +23.64%) and buoyed by the data that showed US retail sales beat expectations in June, signaling steady economic growth.

Over the week, the JCI flew up by +3.70% (vs. +2.63 % the previous week). Moreover, the bond market rallied, with the 10-yr INDOGB yield falling by -4.0 bps (vs. -0.7 bps the previous week), whereas the USD-denominated 10-yr INDOGB yield went up by +5.0 bps (vs. +9.4 bps the previous week). The weakening rupiah against USD continued this week, depreciating by -0.49% (vs. -0.16% in the prior week). In addition, foreign funds still posted outflows in the equity market, totaling -Rp1.63tn (vs. -Rp1.8t7n last week), while in the bond market, foreign investors have come back, recording net inflows of +Rp2.70tn (vs. -Rp1.56tn last week).

Meanwhile, over the week, the average daily trading volume in government bonds increased modestly to Rp34.5tn (vs. Rp30.05tn in the prior week). The 5.0-yr FR0104 series emerged as the most actively traded, supported by a sharp increase in total weekly volume to Rp51.6tn (vs. Rp18.0tn previously).

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity strengthened on Friday (18-Jul), with volume rising to Rp8.2tn (vs. Rp6.2tn on 17-Jul). Although above the current week s average of Rp6.0tn, the figure remained well above both the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.9tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The SMFP08ACN1 series (maturing on 18-Jul-26), rated idAAA, led the corporate bond segment with a trading volume of Rp1.2tn. Its price declined slightly to 100.00 (-0.05%), lifting the yield to 6.25% (+5.19 bps). This was followed by the WISL01ACN1 series (maturing on 18-Jul-26), rated idA, which also recorded a trading volume of Rp1.2tn. The bond s price eased to 100.00 (-0.10%), driving the yield higher to 7.00% (+10.42 bps).

For the week, average daily trading volume in corporate bonds moderated to Rp6.0tn (vs. Rp7.0tn in the prior week). The 1-yr SMFP08ACN1 series (maturing on 1-Jul-26), rated idAAA, was the most actively traded corporate bond, posting a total weekly volume of Rp1.55tn.

Fitch Ratings Indonesia has assigned PT Bank Resona Perdania (BRP) a first-time Long-Term National Rating of ‘AAA(idn)’. The Outlook is Stable. According to Fitch, the key rating drivers for the BRP s rating are as follows: 1) Ratings driven by shareholder support, Japan s Resona Bank, Limited; 2) Steady operating environment; 3) Problem loans higher than average; 4) Profitability improves but under pressure; 5) Adequate capitalization; 6) Modest funding profile.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Indonesia-based garment manufacturer PT Pan Brothers Tbk’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘RD’. Fitch has also affirmed the rating on the USD171 million senior unsecured notes due December 2025, issued by PB International B.V., at ‘C’ with a Recovery Rating of ‘RR4’. At the same time, Fitch Ratings Indonesia has affirmed the National Long-Term Rating at ‘RD(idn)’. According to Fitch, the affirmation reflects Pan Brothers’ pending issuance of new notes and mandatory convertible bond (MCB) to arrive at the capital structure set forth by its in-court restructuring outcome. The ratings also reflect the continuation in Pan Brothers’ underlying operations. The company is also not winding up or undergoing a liquidation procedure.

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