US announced 35% tariff for Canada (prev: 25%), as the country kept demonstrating retaliation. At the same time, Trump said that he may impose 15% or 20% charges for the remaining countries, which was higher than previously 10% threat. From China, in 1H25, domestic excavator sales jumped by +23% y-y, reflecting better future construction activities and steel demands. From domestic, govt. planned to exclude online gamblers from social assistance recipients. There were 500k beneficiaries suspected of engaging in online gambling.

From the bond market, FR 40, 84, 86, and FRSDG001, are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 97.65 (+0.1%). Rupiah was appreciated by 0.2% at USDIDR at 16,224. The 10yr UST yield was up by +1.8bps at 4.35% and 10yr INDOGBR was down by -1.7bps at 6.58% – the spread between the two was at 223bps.

Economy: US tariff for Canada rose to 35% (prev: 25%)

The tariff would target any imports, which were not covered in US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Trump said that the increase was related to Canada’s unfair practices—Tariff, Non-Tariff, Policies, and Trade Barriers—together with Fentanyl issues. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: There were some signs of China’s recovery

In 1H25, domestic excavator sales jumped by +23% y-y. The figure was the leading indicator for future construction activities and steel demands. At the same time, there existed speculation that high-level meeting would be conducted, where the focus would be on reviving the property sector. Rumors emerged that China’s govt. would repeat the 2015’s policies, which were to support shanty-town redevelopment. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: Indonesia’s Ministry of Social Affairs would revoke social assistance aid from recipients linked to online gambling

The ministry planned to revoke social assistance aid from recipients suspected of participating in online gambling, if they were found to be involved and did use the aid for such activities. However, further investigation would be conducted to determine whether the recipient was truly involved or if their National ID Numbers (NIK) were misused by others. Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Center (PPATK) reported that around 500k beneficiaries were suspected of engaging in online gambling, around 100k were linked to terrorism financing, and others were suspected of being involved in corruption. Source: Kontan

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