Juni 20, 2025

Pressure Builds Across Rupiah Assets, Tracking Regional Weakness amid Geopolitical Risks and Hawkish Fed Tone

The rupiah asset class came under broad pressure on Thursday (19-Jun), mirroring the downbeat tone across Asian markets. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) extended losses, falling -1.96% to 6,968.64, turning the year-to-date (YTD) performance negative at -0.32%. Trading activity rebounded to Rp13.9tn (vs. Rp11.5tn prior), slightly above the YTD daily average of Rp13tn. Foreign outflows continued, recording -Rp1.25tn (vs. -Rp0.65tn) and bringing the YTD net sell to -Rp50.37tn.

Regionally, the risk sentiment remained weak. Japan s Nikkei 225 dropped -1.02% (YTD: -1.92%) and Hong Kong s Hang Seng tumbled -1.99% (YTD: +16.95%) as investors digested renewed geopolitical concerns and a slightly hawkish tone from the Fed s latest policy meeting. While the Fed held rates steady as expected, it warned of inflationary risks from tariffs, weighing further on equities.

Furthermore, the government bond (INDOGB) market weakened. Yields rose across benchmarks, following foreign outflows of -Rp1.85tn (vs. +Rp2.06tn prior), based on CTP PLTE data. The 5-yr FR104 rose 3.9 bps to 6.38%, the 10-yr FR103 rose 2.2 bps to 6.73%, the 15-yr FR106 rose 0.9 bps to 7.00%, and the 20-yr FR107 rose 0.6 bps to 7.02%. The 10-yr USD global bond (Mar-2031) was flat at 86.05 (yield: 4.65%), while Indonesia s 5-yr CDS widened to 82.08 (+2.89 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to weaken, depreciating by -0.37% to Rp16,389/USD (YTD: -1.71%).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian rupiah government bond trading increased on Thursday, with volume rising to Rp32.8tn (vs. Rp29.4tn on 18-Jun). Although the figure remained below the prior week s average daily trading volume of Rp33.7tn, it surpassed the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp29.4tn and stood comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) retained its position as the most actively traded government bond, posting a volume of Rp8.5tn (vs. Rp5.7tn previously). The bond s price edged down to 100.45 (-0.25%), lifting the yield to 6.39% (+5.82 bps). Close behind, the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) recorded a trading volume of Rp6.6tn (vs. Rp5.6tn previously). Its price slipped to 100.05 (-0.28%), nudging the yield higher to 6.74% (+3.87 bps).

The latest DMO data (as of 18-Jun) showed foreign holdings in government bonds stable at Rp919.1tn (14.73%). YTD, Bank Indonesia has been the largest buyer (+Rp96.4tn), followed by insurance & pension funds (+Rp44.8tn), foreigners (+Rp42.5tn), retail (+Rp14.9tn), and others (+Rp4.1tn). Mutual funds (-Rp1.9tn) and onshore banks (-Rp0.9tn) continued to post net selling.

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity continued to moderate on Thursday (19-Jun), with volume edging down further to Rp1.6tn (vs. Rp2.5tn on 18-Jun). The figure remained well below both the prior week s average daily volume of Rp3.6tn and the 2025 YTD daily average of Rp3.5tn, though it stood comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The SMDSSA01CCN3 series (maturing on 26-Nov-29), rated idAA(sy), led the corporate bond segment with a trading volume of Rp195bn. It was traded at 104.61 (+0.01%), with the yield relatively unchanged at 7.40% (-0.33 bps). Following this, the SMARMA01 series (maturing on 24-Nov-25), rated irA-, recorded a trading volume of Rp156bn. The bond s price rose to 100.02 (+1.02%), pushing the yield down to 9.69% (-242.45 bps).

Pefindo has assigned idA- rating with stable outlook to PT Jakarta Industrial Estate Pulogadung (JIEP). According to Pefindo, the rating reflects JIEP s: 1) strategic role to the Municipal Government of DKI Jakarta; 2) favorable asset location; and conservative financial profile. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by its limited landbank for further development, risk related to its business remastering plan, and exposure to adverse macroeconomic conditions.

Fitch Ratings Indonesia has affirmed PT FWD Insurance Indonesia’s National Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) Rating at ‘A+(idn)’ with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has simultaneously withdrawn FWD Indonesia’s rating. According to Fitch, the rating reflects the company’s synergy with the group, narrower loss and prudent investment approach.

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