Juni 16, 2025

Escalating Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East, Rupiah Asset Class Underperforms

All of the rupiah asset class closed negatively on Friday (13-Jun). The rupiah currency weakened, depreciating against the USD by -0.53% to Rp16,295/USD (vs. +0.15% prior; YTD: -1.14%), following the dollar index s climb to >98 on Friday as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, stoking fears of a broader conflict and fueling gains in safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the JCI index plummeted further by -0.53%, hitting 7,166.07 (vs. -0.25% prior) but still posting gains in the year-to-date performance at 2.45%. Furthermore, the total trading activity went up to Rp15.2tn (vs. Rp13.6tn prior, or Rp13tn average trading value per day YTD). Surprisingly, foreign investors reported a net inflow of +Rp478.78bn (vs. -Rp282.4bn prior; YTD: -Rp48.58tn). At the same time, across the sea, Asian equity markets closed in the red; the Nikkei 225 Index fell further by -0.89% to 37,834.25 (vs. -0.65% prior; YTD: -3.66%), while the Hang Seng Index fell by -0.59% to 23,892.56 (vs. -1.36% prior; YTD: +19.69%).

The INDOGB price also went down, thus sending up the bond yield. Foreign investors reported outflows totaling -Rp0.75tn (vs. +Rp0.67tn on the previous day), which all the outflows came from benchmark series, totaling -Rp899.76bn, while non-benchmark series attracted inflows of +Rp150.9bn, based on the CTP PLTE on Friday. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 benchmark series was trading at 100.76 (-0.17%) or yielded 6.32% (+3.90 bps), the 10-yr FR103 at 100.27 (-0.29%) or yielded 6.71% (+4.00 bps), the 15-yr FR106 at 101.49 (-0.29%) or yielded 6.96% (+3.10 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 at 101.17 (-0.23%) or yielded 7.01% (+2.10 bps). Otherwise, regarding the 10-yr RoI USD global bond that will mature in Mar-2031, its price continued to up to 86.13 (+0.11%), and its yield decreased to 4.63% (-1.70 bps), while the 5-yr CDS widened to 77.11 (+4.07 bps).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian rupiah government bond trading activity edged higher on Friday, with volume increasing slightly to Rp33.9tn (vs. Rp32.0tn on 12-Jun). The figure surpassed the current week s average daily trading volume of Rp33.7tn and remained comfortably above both the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp29.3tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 40-yr FR0105 series (maturing on 15-Jul-64) emerged as the most actively traded government bond, posting a volume of Rp8.3tn. Its price inched up to 99.70 (+0.55%), sending the yield lower to 6.90% (-4.11 bps). Close behind, the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) booked a trading volume of Rp4.3tn (vs. Rp4.7tn previously). The bond s price slightly declined to 100.36 (-0.28%), pushing the yield higher to 6.18% (+3.85 bps).

According to the latest data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) as of 12-Jun (reflecting trading on 10-Jun), foreign ownership in government bonds was relatively stable at Rp930.6tn or 14.59% of the total outstanding. Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has been the biggest net buyer of government bonds (amounting to +Rp88.3tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp77.1tn), insurance and pension funds (+Rp56.2tn), foreign investors (+Rp53.9tn), other investors (+Rp30.4tn), retail investors (+Rp26.1tn), and mutual funds (+Rp7.9tn).

From the DMO data as of 12-Jun, we estimate onshore banks were the biggest type of net buyer in the latest sukuk auction on 10-Jun, totaling Rp7.8tn or 77.6% of the total issuances, followed by Bank Indonesia (Rp1.3tn or 13.2% of total issuances), other investors (Rp0.6tn or 5.6%), foreign investors (Rp0.2tn or 1.6%), insurance & pension funds (Rp0.1tn or 1.1%), and mutual funds (Rp0.02tn or 0.2%).

Over the week, the JCI (still) posted gains, recording +0.75% (vs. +0.09% in the prior week). In the bond market, the 10-yr INDOGB yield fell by -5.7 bps (vs. -6.4 bps), and the USD-denominated 10-yr INDOGB yield dropped further by -3.5 bps (vs. -13.8 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah weakened against the USD by -0.20% (vs. -0.42% previously). Additionally, foreign funds recorded inflows in both the equity and bond markets. In the equity market, foreign investors posted a net inflow of +Rp1.31tn (vs. outflow of -Rp4.70tn last week). In the bond market, foreign investors recorded a net buy, amounting to +Rp4.89tn (vs. net outflow of +Rp5.31tn in the previous week).

Meanwhile, for the week, the average daily trading volume in government bonds moderated to Rp33.7tn (vs. Rp40.0tn in the prior week). The 10-yr FR0103 series remained the most dominant, although its total weekly volume declined to Rp18.7tn (vs. Rp39.6tn previously).

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity softened on Friday (13-Jun), with volume declining to Rp2.7tn (vs. Rp3.3tn on 12-Jun). The figure stood slightly below both the current week s average daily volume of Rp3.6tn and the 2025 YTD daily average of Rp3.6tn, although it remained well above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The LPPI03BCN3 series (maturing on 21-May-28), rated idA, led the corporate bond segment with a trading volume of Rp360bn. It was traded at 99.80 (-0.05%), yielding 10.33% (+1.99 bps). Following this, the PRTL03BCN3 series (maturing on 8-Jun-26), rated AAA(idn), recorded a trading volume of Rp252bn. The bond changed hands at 100.10 (+0.42%), reflecting a yield of 6.39% (-32.09 bps).

Over the week, the average daily trading volume in corporate bonds remained relatively stable at Rp3.6tn (vs. Rp3.6tn in the prior week). The 1-yr PPGD06ACN2 series (maturing on 8-Jun-26), rated idAAA, emerged as the most actively traded corporate bond, registering a total weekly volume of Rp1.4tn.

Pefindo affirmed idA+ rating for PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk (INKP) with a stable outlook. Pefindo has also affirmed idA+ ratings for INKP s outstanding bonds and its idA+(sy) ratings for its outstanding sukuk.

Pefindo has affirmed idA+ rating with a stable outlook for PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Sulawesi Selasatan & Sulawesi Barat (Bank Sulselbar) and its outstanding bonds.

Pefindo has assigned idA(sy) rating to PT Bank Jabar Banten Syariah (Bank BJB Syariah) Subordinated Sukuk Wakalah Bi Al-Ististmar I/2025 with a maximum issuance of Rp300bn. At the same time, Pefindo affirmed Bank BJB Syariah s rating at idAA- with stable outlook.

Currently, PT Wahana Inti Selaras (WISL) plans to issue new bond tranches, with a target proceeds of Rp1,500bn. The instrument will offer 1-yr, 3-yr, and 5-yr tenors, with the proceeds allocated for its working capital. The book-building period runs from 13-23 Jun-2025, with offering coupon ranges of 6.75-7.25% for the 1-yr tenor, 7.50-8.50% for the 3-yr tenor, and 8.50-9.50% for the 5-yr tenor. (For the detail report please see Bond Issuance: PT Wahana Inti Selaras (WISL) Still Performing Solidly)

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI), currently plans to issue the new BBNI bond tranches, will offer 3-yr and 5-yr tenors, with a target proceeds of Rp5,000bn. The proceeds will be fully used to finance new or existing projects under the categories of Environmentally Sustainable Business Activities (KUBL) and Socially Sustainable Business Activities (KUBS). The book-building period is 12-19 Jun-2025, with offering coupon ranges of 6.25-6.75% for the 3-yr tenor and 6.35-6.90% for the 5-yr tenor. (For the detail report please see Bond Issuance: PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI) The Fourth-Largest Bank in Indonesia with Resilient Credit Metric)

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