Starting the week, the rupiah asset class was mixed; the rupiah and the JCI fell, while INDOGB continued its rally. On Monday (26-May), after strengthening in the past 7 consecutive days, the rupiah weakened against the USD by -0.11% to Rp16,240/USD (vs. + 0.67% prior; +1.33% cumulatively in the last week; -0.84% YTD). Similar to the rupiah, the JCI also fell by -0.36% to 7,188.35 (vs. +0.66% prior; +1.51% cumulatively in the last week; +2.73% YTD). Nevertheless, the total trading equity rebounded to a moderate level, reaching Rp14tn (vs. Rp12.1tn previously; or Rp12.3tn average trading value per day YTD), and foreign continued with inflows though lowering to Rp319.9bn (vs. +Rp589.4bn prior; +Rp2.13tn cumulatively in the last week; -Rp46.6tn YTD). Meanwhile, across the sea, Asian equity markets were mixed. Japan s Nikkei 225 Index went up by 1% to 37,531.53 (vs. +0.47% prior; -1.57% cumulatively in the last week; -4.51% YTD) due to rising optimism ahead of planned trade negotiations in Washington, with chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa preparing for a third round of talks. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng Index dropped by -1.35% to 23,282.33 (vs. +0.24% prior; +1.11% cumulatively in the last week; +17.04% YTD) as investors reacted to renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. As known, Trump warned that a 25% levy could be imposed by the end of June on smartphones made outside the US.
INDOGB continued its rally, thus sending bond yield lowered. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 traded at 100.48 (+0.13%, yield: 6.39%, -3.10 bps), the 10-yr FR103 at 99.63 (+0.08%, yield: 6.80%, -1.10 bps), the 15-yr FR106 at 101.26 (+0.07%, yield: 6.99%, -0.80 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 at 101.26 (+0.07%, yield: 7.01%, -0.70 bps). The 10-yr USD global bond due in Mar-2031 did not change, trading at 84.87 and yielding 4.88%, while Indonesia s 5-yr CDS declined further to 82.01 (-2.26 bps).
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian rupiah government bond trading activity rebounded slightly on Monday (26-May), with volume picked up to Rp27.3tn (vs. Rp21.7tn on 23-May). The figure remained below the prior week s average daily trading volume of Rp34.2tn and the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp28.6tn, though it exceeded the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) emerged as the most actively traded government bond, with trading volume increasing to Rp7.9tn (vs. Rp4.0tn on the previous trading day). Its price inched up to 100.40 (+0.05%), pushing the yield slightly lower to 6.41% (-1.16 bps). Close behind, the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) recorded a trading volume of Rp4.3tn (vs. Rp6.1tn previously). The bond s price also inched up to 99.65 (+0.05%), keeping the yield relatively unchanged at 6.80% (-0.68 bps).
According to the latest data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) as of 23-May (reflecting trading on 21-May), foreign ownership in Indonesian government bonds continued to increase to Rp921.7tn, equivalent to 14.53% of the total outstanding. Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has led net purchases with Rp81.2tn, followed by onshore banks (Rp62.2tn), insurance and pension funds (Rp51.5tn), foreign investors (Rp45tn), other investors (Rp31.3tn), retail investors (Rp26.3tn), and mutual funds (Rp7tn). These figures, which include both primary and secondary market activities and are adjusted for maturities, underscore strong and diversified demand across investor types.
The government is scheduled to hold its next regular sukuk auction on 27-May, targeting an issuance of Rp8tn lowering from the previous auction s Rp10tn. The offered series includes the 6-month and 9-month SPNS (reopenings), as well as PBS003 (1.6-yr), PBS030 (3.1-yr), PBS034 (14.1-yr), PBS039 (16.1-yr), and PBS038 (24.6-yr), all reopening. Based on our incoming bids model, we expect the demand to rebound, with the total bids likely in the range of Rp35tn 45tn.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity also picked up on Monday (26-May), with volume rising slightly to Rp1.9tn (vs. Rp1.7tn on 23-May). However, the figure remained below the prior week s average daily volume of Rp2.1tn, the 2025 YTD daily average of Rp3.5tn, and the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.
The SMMA03CN1 series (maturing on 5-Apr-29), rated irAA, led the corporate bond market with a notable trading volume of Rp169bn. Its price edged up to 110.51 (+0.17%), sending the yield lower to 6.87% (-5.87 bps). Following this, the WSBP02CB series (maturing on 12-Dec-33), rated idB, recorded a trading volume of Rp160bn. The bond s price declined to 99.50 (-1.55%), lifting the yield significantly to 0.06% (+18.28 bps).
Mandiri Sekuritas Research Team
