Bond Market Review (Friday,05/23)
Government Debt Securities (SUN) prices strengthened in last week’s final trading sessions. Based on data from PHEI, the yield on the 5-year SUN benchmark (FR0104) fell by 5 basis points (bps) to 6.42%, while the yield on the 10-year benchmark (FR0103) declined by 3 bps to 6.80%. Bloomberg data showed that the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) dropped by 1 bp to 6.83%.
The outright transaction volume of Government Securities (SBN) was recorded at Rp21.7 trillion yesterday, lower than the previous day’s volume of Rp34.5 trillion. FR0103 and FR0104 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp5.5 trillion and Rp4.0 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, the outright trading volume of corporate bonds stood at Rp2.2 trillion.
The Bank Indonesia (BI) Report on the Performance of the Rupiah Stability Indicator showed a net foreign inflow of Rp14.73 trillion based on transaction data for the period of 19–22 May 2025. This flow consisted of a net purchase of Rp14.13 trillion in the SBN market, a net purchase of Rp1.54 trillion in the equity market, and a net sale of Rp0.95 trillion in the SRBI market. Based on settlement data as of 22 May 2025, year-to-date non-resident investors have recorded net sales of Rp47.52 trillion in equities and Rp14.52 trillion in SRBI, along with net purchases of Rp40.06 trillion in SBN.
Bloomberg data showed that the Rupiah appreciated by 0.67% against the US Dollar, strengthening from Rp16,328/US$ on Thursday to Rp16,218/US$ on Friday.
Bond Market Preview (Monday,05/26)
As of Friday, global indicators reflected a generally positive sentiment, as seen in the decline in US Treasury (UST) yields. The 5-year UST yield curve fell by 3 bps to 4.08%, while the 10-year UST yield curve declined by 3 bps to 4.51%. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) remained steady at 84 bps. The CDS range of 83–85 bps over the past week suggests that global investor risk perception toward Indonesia remains well-anchored.
On a week-over-week basis, the 10-year UST yield curve rose by 8 bps, while Indonesia’s 5-year CDS inched up by 1 bp. In contrast, the Rupiah strengthened by 1.38% against the US Dollar. Amid these mixed signals, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) still posted a 5 bps decline to 6.83%, supported by robust foreign inflows and continued Rupiah appreciation.
Considering the above market conditions, we see potential for increased demand for Rupiah-denominated Government Securities. We estimate the weekly range for the 10-year SUN yield during the 26–30 May period to be in the range of 6.72%–6.92%. Based on yield curve valuation, the following bonds may be attractive to investors: FR0094, FR0052, FR0096, FR0103..
Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for May 26, 2025 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!
IND
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=9b2002a6-365f-494e-babe-e329b92e0b54
ENG
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=149f0e2d-f089-4457-b864-b16a53b6b32c
