US-China had a 90-day truce on trade war, where both lowered tariffs by -115% to each other. Bessent also said that such relaxations may be extended, while China considered to remove some non-tariff measurements. Many expected US inflation to get slower than previously anticipated, but economic slowdown narrative remained intact. From US, Apr’25 saw slower-than-expected CPI (curr: +0.2% m-m, cons: +0.3% m-m, prev: -0.1% m-m). It was an interesting development, indicating that firms did front-loading and absorbed extra costs. From domestic, DPR RI said that tax revenues hit IDR451.1tn in 4M25, declining by -27.73% y-y. MoF, however, did not give any comment yet.

From the bond market, FR 81, 40, 84, and 86, are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 100.34 (-0.3%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 16,520. The UST yield was up by 0.0bps to 4.38% and 10yr INDOGBR was down by -0.4bps to 6.86% – the spread between the two was at 248bps.

Economy: US-China had 90-day truce on trade war

Both countries agreed to delay full reciprocal tariff by 90 days, lowering the rates by 115% to each other. US would put 30% charge on China’s goods, already incl. Fentanyl-related tariff, while China would do 10% on imports from US. US Secretary of Treasury—Scott Bessent—said that such relaxations may go longer than planned, if both sides demonstrated good faith and constructive dialogues. From China’s side, officials would suspend its non-tariff measurements, referring to export control over 7 rare earth commodities. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: In Apr’25, US CPI was interestingly below forecast (curr: +0.2% m-m, cons: +0.3% m-m, prev: -0.1% m-m)

Some categories were expected to accelerate, but it did not materialize yet. Apparels and new vehicles inflation stood at -0.2% m-m (prev: +0.4% m-m) and +0.0% m-m (prev: +0.1% m-m), respectively. The result likely signaled producers doing front-load and absorbing the extra costs. At the same time, recreation services dropped by -0.3% m-m (prev: +0.1% m-m), indicating that consumers pared back on their leisure activities. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: DPR RI said that tax revenues dropped further in 4M25

According to Head of Commission XI DPR RI, Mukhamad Misbakhun, tax revenues hit IDR451.1tn, declining by -27.73% y-y. He also asked MoF to check the data, while the ministry did not give any comment yet. If the data was true, tax revenues contracted for the fourth consecutive time. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

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