The rupiah asset class was mixed on Monday (5-May); the JCI index and the rupiah continued to gain, while INDOGB was mixed. The JCI rose for a second day, up +0.24% to 6,831.95 (vs. +0.72% on the previous day or -2.41% YTD), led by basic and consumer cyclical sectors. The daily trading value slipped to Rp10.5tn (vs. Rp11.9tn prior; Rp12.2tn YTD average), while foreign investors posted a small net buy of Rp83.9bn (vs. Rp133.2bn prior; YTD net sell of Rp50.7tn). Elsewhere in Asia, equity markets were mostly closed due to holidays. The Straits Times edged up +0.2% to 3,853.1 (+1.7% YTD), while Malaysia s KLSE fell -0.2% to 1,539.54 (-6.3% YTD).
Meanwhile, INDOGB prices edged down slightly but still posted gains on a weekly basis. Foreign investors recorded a net buy of Rp1.55tn (vs. net buy of +Rp1.97tn on the previous day), based on the CTP PLTE data on Friday. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 benchmark series was trading at 99.55 (-0.01%) or yielded 6.60% (+0.20 bps), the 10-yr FR103 at 99.18 (-0.03%) or yielded 6.86% (+0.40 bps), the 15-yr FR106 at 101.20 (-0.03%) or yielded 7.00% (+0.40 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 at 101.31 (+0.01%) or yielded 7.00% (-0.10 BPS). Regarding the 10-yr RoI USD global bond that will mature in Mar-2031, its price declined to 85.03 (-0.17%), or it yielded 4.82% (+3.50 bps), and the 5-yr CDS declined to 97.42 (-1.07 bps).
INDOGB was mixed ahead of a bond auction, supported by mid-to-long tenors. Foreign investors booked a slight net sell of Rp50bn (vs. net buy of Rp1.55tn on Friday; net buy of Rp1.74tn last week), based on the CTP PLTE data on Monday. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 benchmark series was trading at 99.52 (-0.05%) or yielded 6.61% (+1.00 bps), the 10-yr FR103 at 99.22 (+0.03%) or yielded 6.86% (-0.50 bps), the 15-yr FR106 at 101.21 (+0.01%) or yielded 6.99% (-0.10 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 at 101.26 (-0.04%) or yielded 7.01% (+0.40 BPS). Regarding the 10-yr RoI USD global bond that will mature in Mar-2031, its price declined further to 84.88 (-0.17%), or it yielded 4.85% (+3.30 bps), and the 5-yr CDS rebounded to 96.88 (+0.41 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah strengthened slightly, closing at Rp16,436/USD (+0.04%; vs. +1.02% prior), now down -2.04% YTD.
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian rupiah bond market softened on Monday (5-May), with tepid start to the week. The government bond trading volume moderated further to Rp19.8tn (vs. Rp20.7tn on 2-May), stayed below the previous week s average daily trading volume of Rp28.9tn, and also lagged both the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp28.3tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) continued to be the most actively traded, registering a volume of Rp3.9tn (vs. Rp5.7tn on the prior trading day). Its price declined to 99.15 (-0.12%), nudging the yield higher to 6.87% (+1.67 bps). Close behind, the 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) saw its trading volume ease slightly to Rp3.0tn (vs. Rp3.96tn previously). The bond s price slipped to 99.55 (-1.63%), driving the yield up to 6.60% (+37.71 bps).
The latest DMO bond flow data is as of 2-May (reflecting transactions on 29-Apr), wherein foreign ownership in government bonds fell further to Rp897.6tn or 14.30% of the total outstanding. Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has (still) been the biggest net buyer of government bonds (amounting to +Rp66.9tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp50.3tn), insurance and pension funds (+Rp44.4tn), retail investors (+Rp26tn), other investors (+Rp24.3tn), foreign investors (+Rp20.9tn), and mutual funds (+Rp3.7tn).
The government will hold another conventional bond auction on 6-May, targeting Rp26tn, with a maximum issuance of up to 150% of the target (same as the previous auction). The government will offer two reopening SPN series (3-mo and 1-yr tenors) and six fixed-rate bond series (5.2-yr FR0104, 10.2-yr FR0103, 15.3-yr FR106, 20.3-yr FR107, 29.2-yr FR102, and 39.2-yr FR0105). We expect the demand to stay strong, with total incoming bids likely in the Rp75tn 85tn range, based on our model.
Indonesia’s 1Q GDP grew by 4.87% YoY, slightly below expectations of 4.91% and down from 5.02% in the previous quarter. This marks the slowest growth pace since 3Q 2021, driven by a decline in government spending (-1.38% vs. 4.17% in 4Q) due to a tighter budget, alongside softer rises in private consumption (4.89% vs. 4.98%) and fixed investment (2.12% vs. 5.03%). On the external front, export growth moderated (to 6.78% from 7.63%), reflecting subdued global demand. Moreover, import growth slowed sharply to 3.96% from 10.36% amid weaker domestic purchasing power.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity declined on Monday (5-May), with volume falling to Rp4.0tn (vs. Rp5.2tn on 2-May). Although the figure remained below the prior week s average daily volume of Rp5.3tn, it still surpassed both the 2025 YTD daily average of Rp3.64tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.
The OPPM03B series (maturing on 4-Nov-25), rated idA+, led the corporate bond market with a trading volume of Rp301bn. The bond traded relatively flat at 102.22 (+0.01%), with the yield softening to 5.94% (-9.24 bps). Following this, the WSKT03BCN2 series (maturing on 30-Apr-30), also rated idA+, posted a volume of Rp300bn. The bond s price held steady at 99.92 (+0.02%), with its yield effectively flat at 8.26% (-0.30 bps).
Pefindo has affirmed idBBB+ rating with stable outlook to PT Bank Capital Indonesia Tbk. According to Pefindo, the corporate rating reflects the Bank s string capitalization, moderate asset quality, and adequate liquidity profile. However, the rating is constrained by its weak profitability and modest market position.
Pefindo has assigned idBBB rating to PT Jamkrida Jabar (Perseroda) (Jamkrida Jabar). The outlook of the corporate rating is stable . The rating reflects the Company s important role to the provincial government of West Java (the Parent) and moderate liquidity profile. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by its weak operating performance and limited potential for revenue generation.
Fitch Rating has assigned PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk’s (BB-/Stable) proposed senior notes a ‘BB-‘ rating. The proposed notes, to be issued by Medco’s wholly owned subsidiary, Medco Cypress Tree Pte. Ltd., will be guaranteed by Medco and some of its key subsidiaries. The notes are rated at the same level as Medco’s Issuer Default Rating (IDR), as they will constitute its direct, unsubordinated and unsecured obligations. Medco plans to use the proceeds to refinance part of its existing debt.
Handy Yunianto
Mandiri Sekuritas Research Team
