Rupiah Asset Class Climbs After US Signals Tariff Reprieve; FX Reserves Break Another Record High in March; The First Auction in 2Q Targets to Issue Rp10tn

Starting the third week of April, all of the rupiah asset class goes up on Monday after the US signals a tariff reprieve. The JCI index continued its positive trend, aligned with Asian equity markets. As reported, the JCI index rose by +1.70% to 6,368.52 (vs. +0.13% on the previous day, or -3.45% cumulatively in the last week, or -9.48% YTD), driven by the basic materials and transportation sectors, with the trading value in the secondary market being sideways at Rp10.71tn (vs. Rp10.7tn on the previous day and Rp12.41tn average trading value per day YTD), while foreign still recorded a net sell of -Rp2.3tn (vs. net sell of -Rp214.1bn on the previous day, or -Rp5.96tn cumulatively in the previous week, or -Rp38.62tn YTD). Concurrently, almost all Asian equity markets closed positively; the Nikkei 225 index rebounded by +1.18% to 33,982.36 (vs. -2.96% on the previous day, +0.44% cumulatively in the last week, or -14.57% YTD), and the Hang Seng index climbed up by +2.40% to 21,417.40 (vs. +1.13% on the previous day, or -7.85% cumulatively in the last week, or +8.48% YTD) after the Trump administration granted tariff exclusions on tech goods most of which are imported from China. Traders largely ignored the possibility that new US tariffs, including on chips, may be imposed in the coming weeks or months. The optimism was also supported by Beijing’s ongoing efforts to calm its domestic markets, including a cap on daily net sales by individual hedge funds and major retail investors at CNY 50mn.

Meanwhile, INDOGB price also rebounded, thus sending the bond yield lower, although foreign investors continued to report a net outflow but slowing to Rp0.91tn all coming from non-benchmark series as foreign reported net buys of Rp0.7tn for the benchmark series (vs. net outflows of -Rp1.31tn on the previous day), based on the CTP PLTE on Monday. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 benchmark series was trading at 98.60 (+0.12%) or yielded 6.82% (-2.80 bps), the 10-yr FR103 at 98.13 (+0.28%) or yielded 7.01% (-3.90 bps), the 15-yr FR106 at 100.61 (-0.07%) or yielded 7.06% (-0.70 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 at 100.82 (+0.09%) or yielded 7.05% (-0.80 bps). Regarding the 10-yr RoI USD global bond that will mature in Mar-2031, its price edged up to 83.01 (+0.06%) or yielded 5.23% (-0.80 bps), and the 5-yr CDS continued to fall to 109.25 (-2.78 bps). Meanwhile, the strengthening of the rupiah continued as it appreciated against the USD by +0.05% to Rp16,787/USD (vs. appreciated by +0.16% on the previous day, or depreciated by -0.51% cumulatively in the last week, or -4.14% YTD).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian rupiah government bond trading volume edged slightly higher on Monday (14-Apr), reaching Rp17.51tn (vs. Rp16.11tn on 11-Apr). Despite the uptick, the figure remained well below the prior week s average daily trading volume of Rp26.7tn, the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp28.5tn, and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) emerged as the most actively traded government bond, booking a trading volume of Rp3.0tn. Its price inched up to 98.64 (+0.14%), resulting in a yield decline to 6.81% (-3.20 bps). Meanwhile, the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) followed closely, recording a trading volume of Rp2.7tn. The bond strengthened to 98.25 (+0.48%), driving its yield lower to 6.99% (-6.57 bps).

The latest DMO bond flow data is as of 11-Apr (reflecting transactions on 9-Apr), wherein foreign ownership in government bonds continued to decrease to Rp887.6tn or 14.25% of the total outstanding. Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has been the biggest net buyer of government bonds (amounting to +Rp61.9tn), followed by insurance and pension funds (+Rp38.9tn), onshore banks (+Rp31.7tn), retail investors (+Rp25.7tn), other investors (+Rp21.3tn), foreign investors (+Rp10.9tn), and mutual funds (+Rp0.3tn).

The domestic economic data released on Monday was the foreign exchange reserves in March, which increased to USD 157.1bn from USD 154.5bn in Feb-2025, bolstered by tax and service revenue inflows and foreign loan withdrawals by the government. As a note, this was an all-time high for Indonesia s foreign exchange reserve. The FX reserves were equivalent to 6.7 months of imports, or 6.5 months of imports and government foreign debt payments, and they were above the international adequacy standard of around 3 months of imports. Furthermore, Bank Indonesia reaffirmed that foreign exchange reserves in the coming months are expected to remain sufficient, supported by the upbeat export outlook, capital and financial account surpluses, and attractive investment returns.

The government will hold a regular sukuk auction on 15-Apr, targeting to issue Rp10tn or the same as in the previous sukuk auction. As a note, this is the first sukuk auction for 2Q-2025. The government will offer the 6-mo SPNS series (new issuances), 9-mo SPNS series (new issuances), 1.8-yr PBS003 (reopening), 3.3-yr PBS030 (reopening), 4.4-yr PBSG001 (reopening), 14.2-yr PBS034 (reopening), and 24.7-yr PBS038 (reopening). Based on our incoming bids model, we estimate the demand will be lower than in the previous sukuk auction but still higher than the initial target, within a range of Rp13tn-23tn.

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, according to IDX s OTC trading report, trading activity in the Indonesian rupiah corporate bond market remained relatively steady on Monday (14-Apr), with volume rising slightly to Rp4.5tn (vs. Rp4.2tn on 11-Apr). Although the figure slipped below the prior week s average daily volume of Rp6.7tn, it continued to exceed both the 2025 YTD daily average of Rp3.33tn and the 2024 average of Rp2.05tn.

The PJAA03ACN1 series (maturing on 9-Jul-27), rated idA+, led corporate bond trading, posting a volume of Rp527bn. The bond declined to 101.74 (-2.59%), causing its yield to spike to 7.65% (+128.89 bps). Following this, the INKP05BCN1 series (maturing on 4-Oct-27), also rated idA+, recorded a volume of Rp430bn. It edged down to 106.04 (-0.34%), with its yield rising moderately to 9.09% (+6.34 bps).

Pefindo has affirmed idAA- ratings for PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk (TPIA) and its outstanding bonds. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable. According to Pefindo, the rating affirmation follows the information about the acquisition of Aster Chemicals and Energy Pte Ltd. On 1-Apr-2025. Pefindo views that the acquisition may strengthen TPIA s vertical integration as well as its business profile. Moreover, Pefindo stated that the rating reflects the following factors: 1) TPIA s leading position in the domestic petrochemical industry; 2) Synergies with its strategic partners; 3) vertically integrated operations with satisfactory supporting facilities; and 4) strong liquidity with very strong financial flexibility. However, its sensitivity to industry cyclicality and risks related to the expansion of new projects constrain its rating.

Pefindo has affirmed idAA- ratings to PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) and its outstanding bonds. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable. The rating reflects MEDC s iversified asset, a high proportion of revenue from gas with fixed prices, which contributes to cash flow visibility, and good operating management. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by its moderate financial profile as well as inherent risks related to the commodity-based sectors and exposure to energy transition risk.

Mandiri Sekuritas Research Team