Bond Market Review (Friday,04/11)
Government Debt Securities (SUN) prices closed lower in Friday’s trading session. According to data from PHEI, the yield on the 5-year SUN benchmark (FR0104) rose slightly by 1 basis point (bp) to 6.85%, and the yield on the 10-year SUN benchmark (FR0103) increased by 3bp to 7.04%. Bloomberg data showed that the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) rose by 3bp to 7.07%.
The total outright transaction volume for Government Securities (SBN) was recorded at Rp11.9 trillion on Friday, lower than the previous day’s volume of Rp17.0 trillion. FR0079 and FR0103 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with trading volumes of Rp1.3 trillion and Rp1.1 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, outright corporate bond trading volume was recorded at Rp2.9 trillion.
The Bank Indonesia (BI) Report on the Performance of the Rupiah Stability Indicator showed a net sell by foreign investors amounting to Rp24.04 trillion for the period of April 8–10, 2025. This flow consisted of a net sell of Rp7.84 trillion in the SBN market, Rp5.73 trillion in the equity market, and Rp10.47 trillion in the Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI) market. Based on settlement data as of April 10, 2025, year-to-date foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp32.48 trillion in the equity market, a net buy of Rp13.05 trillion in the SBN market, and a net buy of Rp7.11 trillion in SRBI.
Bloomberg data showed that the Rupiah strengthened 0.16% against the US Dollar, moving from Rp16,823/US$ on Thursday to Rp16,796/US$ on Friday.
Bond Market Preview (Monday,04/14)
As of Friday, global indicators reflected a negative sentiment, as seen in the increase in US Treasury (UST) yields. The UST 5-year yield curve rose by 11bp to 4.15%, and the UST 10-year yield curve rose by 8bp to 4.48%. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) declined by 3bp to 112bp.
Week-over-week, the UST 10-year yield curve rose by 47bp, and Indonesia’s 5-year CDS rose by 6bp. Meanwhile, the Rupiah depreciated by 0.86% against the US Dollar. In the SRBI auction held on April 11, 2025, Bank Indonesia set the weighted average rate for the 12-month tenor at 6.74%, 31bp higher than the 6.43% average from the previous auction on March 21. Although global indicators reflected a broadly negative sentiment, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) only recorded a relatively moderate increase of 7bp to 7.07%, possibly supported by BI’s presence in the SBN market.
Considering the market conditions discussed above, we see potential for increased volatility in Rupiah-denominated Government Securities (SBN) yields. We estimate the weekly range for the 10-year SUN yield for the period of April 14–18 to be 7.00–7.28%. Based on yield curve valuation, we expect the following bonds to be attractive to investors: FR0094, FR0096, FR0100, and FR0088.
