Global indicators showed substantial fluctuations during the Eid al-Fitr holiday period from 28 March to 4 April. The extended holiday limited onshore market activity, creating a temporary disconnect between domestic pricing and external developments. During that period, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose new tariffs on multiple countries, including Indonesia. Offshore market movements—including a sharp drop in UST yields, a notable rise in Indonesia’s CDS, and fluctuations in the Rupiah’s exchange rate-may lead to significant repricing once the domestic bond market reopens.

The 10-year UST yield dropped sharply by 37bp from 4.38% on 27 March to 4.01% on 4 April 2025. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS surged by 13bp to 106bp. Bloomberg data also showed that the Rupiah temporarily depreciated by around 1.1% against the US Dollar, reaching Rp16,746/US$ on 3 April before strengthening to Rp16,653/US$ on 4 April.