GOTO’s robust 4Q24 growth and margin gains led us to upgrade forecasts, driven by ODS margin expansion, stronger Fintech profitability, and rising ad monetization. Despite a softer 1Q25, we expect accelerating profitability from 2H25, reaching PATMI-level profitability by 2027, reinforcing our Buy rating (PT Rp106).

Double-digit growth and margin expansion continue. Incorporating the 4Q24 results and 2025 guidance, we raised our 2025/2026 GTV by 1.3%/10.9%, net revenue by 1.6%/1.7%, and adjusted EBITDA by 99.3%/51.1% to Rp1.6trn/Rp2.5trn. We now expect GOTO to deliver 2025 GTV growth of 13.7% and net revenue growth of 24.1%. While we expect a soft 1Q25 amidst the festive season and the challenging macro backdrop, we expect a stronger profitability run rate in 2H25 along with the 50% cloud cost saving that should materialize in 4Q25 onwards. As such, we expect GOTO to turn profitable at PATMI level by 2027F.

Headroom for further ODS margin expansion. The ODS segment hit a record high adjusted EBITDA margin of 1.6% of GTV in 4Q24, compared to Grab s Mobility + Delivery margin of 4.2%. On top of the incentive optimization, we expect further margin expansion through continuous ramp up of special delivery fleets program along with its ads monetization and merchant funded promotions, which are still at their early stage. Recalling our past food merchants interview, we think the 4Q24 results have shown that GOTO s tech investments have finally enabled it to improve merchants ROI, giving room for further monetization as its ads revenue to Food GMV of 1.6% in 4Q24, despite the rapid increase from 1.1%, remains well below the global benchmark of ~5%. We now forecast ODS adjusted EBITDA to reach Rp1.2trn/Rp1.5trn in 2025/2026 (1.7%/1.9% of GTV) from Rp0.7trn (1.1% of GTV) in 2024.

Raising Fintech profitability. We raised Fintech s adjusted EBITDA to Rp0.3trn in 2025 and Rp0.8trn in 2026, assuming further increase in the consumer loan book to Rp8.2trn in 2025 and Rp10.0trn in 2026.

Maintain Buy with higher PT of Rp106. We raised our PT from Rp100 previously, considering the forecast upgrades, PT cutoff rollover to Dec-2025, and the reduced number of O/S shares post-buyback.

Mandiri Sekuritas Research