Today’s highlights:

In Feb, US CPI was below consensus (curr: +0.2% m-m, cons: +0.3% m-m, prev: +0.5% m-m), with broad-based disinflation seen. The result offered some reliefs to markets, but tariff plan ahead would be upside risks to the inflation. On trade war, EU planned to hit back US with tariffs, focusing on politically sensitive goods, e.g. soybeans and beef. On fiscal side, in the first 5mo of ‘24—’25 book, US deficit hit all-time high of -USD1.15tn (’23—’24: -USD0.83bn).

From the bond market, FR 81, 67, 83, and 92 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 103.61 (+0.2%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.3% at USDIDR at 16,452. The UST yield was up by +3.3bps to 4.31% and 10yr INDOGBR was up by +2.1bps to 6.93% – the spread between the two was at 261bps.

Economy: In Feb, US CPI was below consensus (curr: +0.2% m-m, cons: +0.3% m-m, prev: +0.5% m-m)

The disinflation was seen in Food (curr: +0.2% m-m, prev: +0.4% m-m) and Energy (curr: +0.2% m-m, prev: +1.1% m-m). By excl. both categories, core CPI was also below consensus (curr: +0.2% m-m, cons: +0.3% m-m, prev: +0.4% m-m), driven by Shelter (curr: +0.3% m-m, prev: +0.4% m-m) and Transportation Services (curr: -0.8% m-m, prev: +1.8% m-m). Source: US BLS, Bloomberg

Economy: EU planned to hit back US with tariffs

In response to US steel & aluminum tariff, EU planned to impose counter tariff on EUR26bn of US goods, eq. to USD30bn. The goods would include politically sensitive goods, e.g. beef, soybeans, and poultry. EU would also begin consultation with its members, discussing additional goods to the list. Source: Bloomberg

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Research Division

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.