Today’s highlights:

Trump excluded some Mexico’s and Canada’s goods from the 25% tariff, which would be effective up to 2 Apr. Half of imports from Mexico and 38% of those from Canada would benefit from the policy. On labor market, federal firing began translating to numbers, with federal initial jobless claims hitting 1,580 (prev: 1,634), while the 1yr avg. stood at 400.

From the bond market, FR 81, 105, 83, and 57 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 104.06 (-0.2%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.2% at USDIDR at 16,340. The UST yield was down by -0.0bps to 4.28% and 10yr INDOGBR was up by +1.2bps to 6.87% – the spread between the two was at 259bps.

Economy: Trump temporarily excluded more goods from the tariff

Trump excluded Canada’s and Mexico’s goods, which were parts o USMCA, from 25% tariff. The policy would be effective up to 2 Apr. Moreover, 50% of imports from Mexico and 38% of those from Canada were under the trade pact. Canada then responded by delaying its 25% counter-levies to 2 Apr (prev: 25 Mar). Source: Bloomberg

Economy: Last week, jobless claims dropped to 221k (cons: 233K, prev: 242k)

On the other hand, its 4wk MA of initial claims turned higher to 224,250 (prev: 224,000), removing w-w volatilities. Non-seasonally adjusted initial claims also rose by +3,833 w-w to 224,689, with the largest increases seen in New York (curr: +15,628 w-w), Texas (curr: +1,606 w-w), and Kentucky (curr: +898 w-w). A week earlier, continuing claims decreased to 1,897,000 (cons: 1,874,000, prev: 1,855,000). An interesting finding was found in federal workers, whose initial claims stood at 1,580 (prev: 1,634), while the 1yr avg. was recorded at 400, following DOGE’s policy to cut tens of thousands of federal workers. Source: US Department of Labor, Bloomberg

Please visit this link to view the full version of this output

Research Division

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.