{"id":6852,"date":"2026-05-22T02:39:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T02:39:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/?p=6852"},"modified":"2026-05-22T02:39:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T02:39:07","slug":"growth-target-hinges-on-fiscal-soes-and-commodities-in-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/2026\/05\/22\/growth-target-hinges-on-fiscal-soes-and-commodities-in-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"Growth Target Hinges on Fiscal, SOEs, and Commodities in 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"

Key policy directions<\/strong>. On 20 May, President Prabowo Subianto delivered a speech in parliament as part of the 2027 preliminary budget submission which is usually delivered by the Finance Minister. Prabowo outlined both the 2027 macro framework and a new centralized commodity export scheme. Prabowo questioned growth model despite seven years of ~5% average growth, citing rising poverty and a shrinking middle class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiscal limit maintained.<\/strong> The fiscal deficit is set lower at 1.8-2.4% of GDP in 2027 vs. 2.7% in 2026. This implies revenue growth expanding by 5-10% y-o-y vs. this year budget while spending is -0.6 to 8.2% higher (Exhibit 1)<\/strong>. Despite lower deficit, projected GDP growth is ambitiously higher at 5.8-6.5% vs 5.4% target in the 2026 budget. The USD\/IDR assumption is set at 16,800-17,500 vs 17,000 of ytd average and latest 17,700 (2026: 16,500). The oil price assumption is raised to USD70-95\/bbl (vs. USD70 in 2026B), while bond yields are set at 6.5-7.3% (vs. 6.9% in 2026B). Overall, the 2027 posture leans more consolidative, pairing a narrower deficit with ambitious revenue and growth target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Curbing under-invoicing and leakage.<\/strong> President Prabowo claimed under invoicing, transfer pricing, and export proceeds leakages particularly from commodity exports had cost Indonesia USD908bn over 22 years. To address this issue, the government will establish a single-channel export through a designated SOE starting with CPO and coal, and ferro alloys. Prabowo framed the policy as a return to state stewardship, while also signaling plans for Indonesia to set its own benchmark prices for key commodities. Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia is the newly established subsidiary of Danantara for commodity exports as per regulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Single channel commodity exports.<\/strong> The implementation of single channel commodity exports will occur in two phases. Phase I will start from 1 June to 31 August 2026, serving as a transition period. During this period, exports pre and post-clearance remain with companies while clearance handled by DSI. In addition, companies must transfer transactions to DSI so that it can transact and contract with all overseas buyers. In Phase II (starting from 1 September 2026), all three stages become B2B between companies and DSI with DSI leading, transactions with foreign buyers fully handled by DSI (Exhibit 2)<\/strong>. Pre-clearance covers the commercial setup: the sales contract, payment method, packing and labeling. Clearance covers customs and shipment execution while post-clearance covers settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stricter export proceeds policy.<\/strong> President Prabowo reannounced the revision on export proceeds, with 100% mandatory placement for 12 months. The new regulation only allows exporters to convert 50% of proceeds into Rupiah (with some exceptions), while others must stay in dollar accounts at SOE banks (effective from June). On 20 May, Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga revealed special provisions, including a 30% retention requirement for 3 months for exporters under bilateral trade partners in non-SOE banks, as well as income tax incentives of up to 0% depending on the placement tenor (Appendix)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our view.<\/strong> In his third year, President Prabowo will continue his budget-led growth model, still with dual support from SOEs under Danantara and the commodity sector. The spirit of maintaining fiscal discipline remains intact helped by the ambitious revenue growth target. We think the centralized commodity exports scheme can lead to a larger taxable pool from the miners, but execution must be coupled with prudence to keep investment in the mining sector attractive. This will fit perfectly with the implementation of stricter export proceeds rules to help keep more dollars onshore and boost BI FX Reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Key policy directions. On 20 May, President Prabowo Subianto delivered a speech in parliament as part of the 2027 preliminary […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6852"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6852\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6853,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6852\/revisions\/6853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}