{"id":6782,"date":"2026-04-24T02:06:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T02:06:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/?p=6782"},"modified":"2026-04-24T02:06:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T02:06:17","slug":"trimegah-economics-20260424-yield-hunter-diary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/2026\/04\/24\/trimegah-economics-20260424-yield-hunter-diary\/","title":{"rendered":"Trimegah Economics 20260424 – Yield Hunter Diary"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear Yield Hunter,<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a tendency today to oversimplify Bank Indonesia\u2019s position. Markets are asking a straightforward question: Why not hike this month?<\/strong> Inflation is expected to rise as Oil prices remain elevated and The rupiah is weakening. From a textbook perspective, the answer seems obvious. But the reality facing Bank Indonesia today is anything but simple. Because this is no longer a textbook cycle.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s begin with what has actually happened, not what is expected. The rupiah has depreciated, govt. bond yields have risen, while BI continue to add position at the long end of the curve, creating flattening situation. SRBI rates continue to edge higher. This is not anticipation; this is tightening.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial conditions in Indonesia have already adjusted materially, without a change in the policy rate. This matters, because every rate hike from here is not the first tightening. It is the second tightening, and second tightening, in a fragile economy, is rarely neutral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pressure we are seeing today is not coming from excess demand. There is no credit boom, while loan growth is only at +8.9% y-y in Mar\u201926. There is no overheating on consumption, and no broad-based wage pressure. Instead, the drivers are external: Oil prices shaped by geopolitical conflict, trade fragmentation, and global interest rate asymmetry. This is a cost-push environment, not a demand-pull one. And this distinction is critical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because:<\/strong> Monetary policy is effective against demand-driven inflation, but blunt against supply shocks. Raising interest rates will not reduce oil prices. It will not resolve geopolitical risk. But it will immediately increase borrowing costs, compress margins, and weaken already fragile domestic demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The overshooting reality: A global repricing, and local impacts of delaying oil-driven inflation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we have often emphasized in our reports, understanding the current situation requires accepting a less comfortable truth; Markets move faster than fundamentals, and sometimes beyond them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But today\u2019s overshooting is not merely a textbook phenomenon. It is not just about delayed domestic adjustment, such as fuel price normalization or inflation pass-through. What we are witnessing is a broader and more structural dynamic: a global repricing of risk, liquidity, and capital allocation. The rupiah is not weakening in isolation. It is moving within a world where:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.     USD liquidity is tightening;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.     Global savings are being reallocated toward commodity exporters, particularly oil-producing economies;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.     And risk appetite toward emerging markets is being reassessed in a more fragmented, geopolitically charged environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, the depreciation of IDR reflects both things: necessary adjustment to new global conditions, and excess movement driven by positioning, hedging demand, dividend payment, & defensive USD preference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is precisely what Dornbusch Overshooting Model described decades ago; Exchange rates adjust rapidly, often overshooting their long-run equilibrium, before gradually normalizing. However, there is a critical nuance in today\u2019s environment. Overshooting today is not purely cyclical; It carries a structural component.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means the risk is not just temporary misalignment, but also the possibility that what appears as overshooting may partly reflect a new equilibrium forming under a different global regime.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is where the policy challenge becomes significantly more complex. If policymakers treat all depreciation as temporary overshooting, they risk underreacting to structural change. But if they treat all movements as structural, they risk over-tightening into what is still partly a market-driven overshoot.  The real challenge, therefore, is not to eliminate overshooting but to distinguish which part of the move must be accepted, and which part must be anchored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please visit this link<\/strong><\/a> to view the full version of this report.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dear Yield Hunter, There is a tendency today to oversimplify Bank Indonesia\u2019s position. Markets are asking a straightforward question: Why not […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6782","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6782"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6782\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6783,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6782\/revisions\/6783"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}