Market Brief<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Indonesia\u2019s local-currency bond market traded in a narrow and mixed range, with government yields shifting 1 – 4 bps across the curve. The 10-year benchmark edged 1 bp lower to 6.45%. In the FX market, the rupiah extended its appreciation to IDR16,802\/USD (from IDR16,888\/USD). Secondary market activity strengthened, with outright government securities turnover rising to IDR28.1 trillion (vs. IDR21.6 trillion previously), indicating improved liquidity conditions. Corporate bond trading volumes reached IDR3.8 trillion. Indonesia\u2019s USD-denominated sovereign bonds traded in a tight range: Indo-31 and Indo-54 declined 1 bps each to 4.36% and 5.43%, respectively, while Indo-36 rose 1 bp to 5.02%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
U.S. Treasury yields declined meaningfully across the curve as investors rotated into safe-haven assets amid renewed concerns over AI-driven economic disruption and escalating trade policy uncertainty. By the close, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields fell to 3.44% (-4 bps), 3.58% (-7 bps), 4.03% (-6 bps), and 4.70% (-3 bps), respectively. Outperformance was concentrated in the belly of the curve, suggesting renewed demand for duration as markets sought protection against growth and policy risks. Risk aversion was most visible in sharp equity sell-offs across software services and payments, reflecting concerns that rapid AI adoption could erode earnings visibility and pressure credit quality in selected sectors. Sentiment was further weighed down by renewed trade tensions. Several European and Asian economies reportedly reconsidered or delayed trade negotiations with the U.S. following the Supreme Court\u2019s 6\u20133 ruling that invalidated large portions of former President Trump\u2019s reciprocal tariffs under the IEEPA framework. Despite the ruling, trade tensions intensified after President Trump announced an immediate increase in global tariffs to 15% (from 10%) and signaled potential additional levies on countries seeking to renegotiate existing agreements. The escalation in tariff rhetoric reinforced downside risks to global growth and trade flows, underpinning demand for Treasuries. On the data front, December factory orders declined 0.7% MoM (vs. -0.7% consensus; +2.7% previously), though the weakness was largely concentrated in transportation equipment. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.4% (vs. +0.1% previously), while shipments increased 0.5% (vs. -0.2% previously), indicating that underlying manufacturing demand remains relatively resilient outside volatile transport segments. European government bonds rallied in tandem, with 10-year yields declining to 2.71% in Germany (-3 bps), 4.31% in the U.K. (-4 bps), and 3.28% in France (-2 bps). Looking ahead, market focus will turn to U.S. producer price inflation data due Friday, alongside further developments in U.S. trade policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The decline in U.S. Treasury yields should provide near-term support for Indonesia\u2019s bond market. While Indonesia recorded a January fiscal deficit of IDR54.6 trillion amid a 26% YoY increase in government spending, revenue remained robust at IDR172.7 trillion, suggesting manageable fiscal dynamics at the start of the year. Near-term attention will center on today\u2019s government sukuk auction. A solid investors bids and successful absorption of the IDR11 trillion issuance target would reinforce investor confidence and could serve as a constructive catalyst for domestic bond performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fixed Income News<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 The Government of Indonesia is scheduled to conduct a sukuk auction today, targeting indicative issuance of IDR11.0 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 PEFINDO has affirmed PT Polytama Propindo\u2019s (Polytama) idA- rating with a stable outlook, while reaffirming idAAA(cg) for its Bond II Year 2021 Series B and idAAA(sy)(cg) for its Sukuk Ijarah II Year 2021 Series B, both fully guaranteed by Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility (CGIF; idAAA\/stable).<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Market Brief Indonesia\u2019s local-currency bond market traded in a narrow and mixed range, with government yields shifting 1 – 4 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6576"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6576\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6577,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6576\/revisions\/6577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}