The government will hold a sukuk auction on Tuesday (24-Feb), with a target of Rp11tn, unchanged from the previous auction. The offered series include the SPNS (1-mo, 6-mo, and 9-mo tenors), as well as PBS030 (2.4-yr), PBS040 (4.8-yr), PBS034 (13.3-yr), PBS005 (17.2-yr), and PBS038 (23.8-yr). Mirroring the latest conventional bond auction, we expect the total demand to be softer than in the previous auction, at Rp36tn (range: Rp31tn-41tn).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sukuk auction recap: stronger sukuk demand, more than expected. Demand at the 10-Feb sukuk auction surprised to the upside, rebounding more strongly than expected. The total incoming bids reached Rp43.8tn (vs. Rp38.6tn in the previous auction), exceeding our Rp27tn 37tn forecast range and confirming resilient onshore demand. Demand was led by the 2.4-yr PBS030, which attracted Rp9.7tn (22.1% of total bids). This was followed by the 7.7-yr PBSG002 at Rp7.85tn (17.9%) and the 9-mo SPNS at Rp7.25tn (16.5%). The same as in the previous conventional bond auction, the share of the shortest-tenor SPNS bids declined to 29.9% of the total demand (vs. 36.5% in the previous auction), likely reflecting competition from the resumption of twice-weekly SRBI auctions, which has reduced front-end appetite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government issued Rp12tn, unchanged from the previous sukuk auction and above the Rp11tn target. SPNS issuance also declined further to Rp2.7tn (vs. Rp4.0tn previously). As a result, the average tenor lengthened to 6.78 years (vs. 6.32 years prior), while the weighted average cost of funds rose slightly to 5.47% (vs. 5.42%). The year-to-date sukuk issuance has reached Rp246.5tn, equivalent to 15.7% of the FY2026 target. We view the DMO s decision to maintain above-target issuance positively, as it helps front-load funding, ease near-term supply pressure, and support yield stability amid volatile market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Onshore banks maintained their position as the largest type of sukuk buyer, in both primary and secondary markets. Based on bond fund flow estimates, in the last sukuk auction on 10-Feb, onshore banks accounted for approximately Rp8.1tn or 67.5% of the total awarded, underscoring their continued role as the main absorption channel. They were followed by other investors and insurance & pension fund companies, which recorded net awarded amounts of Rp2.6tn and Rp0.7tn, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not only in the primary market, but onshore banks domination also extended to the secondary market. Based on DMO data (settlement date of 20-Feb), onshore banks recorded the largest net purchases of sukuk at Rp10.1tn, followed by mutual funds (+Rp8tn), Bank Indonesia (+Rp3.9tn), and other investors (+Rp3.7tn). Insurance and pension funds and foreign investors also posted net buying of +Rp2.1tn and +Rp1tn, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Auction outlook: expecting softer demand. We expect demand at today s sukuk auction to remain above the government s initial target, but softer compared with the latest sukuk auction, mirroring the latest conventional bond auction. The total incoming bids are estimated in the range of Rp31tn 41tn (vs. Rp43.8tn bids in the prior sukuk auction on 10-Feb). The proposed shift to holding SRBI auctions twice a week could partially redirect demand from SPNS, especially at the short end of the curve. Nevertheless, Bank Indonesia s participation through non-competitive bids is expected to sustain the overall auction demand. In terms of liquidity, the environment continues to be favorable. The system liquidity projection by Bank Indonesia stands at Rp37.7tn (vs. Rp64.9tn in the prior auction). Note that there is no maturing bond this week, but there are still coupon payments, totaling Rp1.6tn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We forecast the fair yields for the bond series to be auctioned today as follows: 4.50% (range: 4.45-4.55%) for 1-mo SPNS, 4.65% (range: 4.60-4.70%) for 6-mo SPNS, 4.75% (range: 4.70-4.80%) for 9-mo SPNS, 5.15% (range: 5.10-5.20%) for 2.4-yr PBS030, 5.62% (range: 5.57-5.67%) for 4.8-yr PBS040, 6.40% (range: 6.35-6.45%) for 13.3-yr PBS034, 6.62% (range: 6.57-6.67%) for 17.2-yr PBS005, and 6.73% (range: 6.68-6.78%) for 23.8-yr PBS038.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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The government will hold a sukuk auction on Tuesday (24-Feb), with a target of Rp11tn, unchanged from the previous auction. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6574"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6574\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6575,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6574\/revisions\/6575"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}