The total incoming bids in the conventional bond auction on 18-Feb continued to weaken by 17.7% to Rp63.1tn (vs. Rp76.6tn prior; YTD avg.: Rp78.4tn). Notably, this figure was the lowest level of incoming bids so far this year and in line with our forecast range of Rp60tn-70tn. The decline was mainly due to a sharp drop in demand for SPN (Treasury bills), which fell to Rp5.8tn (vs. Rp12tn previously; YTD average: Rp20.5tn). In contrast, demand for fixed-rate (FR) bonds remained relatively stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Based on DMO data, despite onshore bids dropping, they continued to dominate, reaching Rp55.4tn (vs. Rp68.2tn prior, or YTD avg.: Rp71.3tn) or 87.9% of the total incoming bids. Meanwhile, offshore bids moderated to Rp7.7tn (vs. Rp8.4tn prior), but still above the 2026 YTD average of Rp7tn per auction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By series, the demand was led by the 5.1-yr FR109 and the 10.2-yr FR108 series, which reached Rp24.2tn and Rp21.1tn (vs. Rp25.4tn and Rp20.6tn in the prior auction), or 38.3% and 33.4% of total bids, respectively. Compared with previous auctions, the SPN demand continued its declining trend, dropping to only Rp5.8tn from Rp12tn on 3-Feb, Rp31.6tn on 20-Jan, and Rp32.8tn on 6-Jan. In our view, the weaker SPN demand reflected the substitution of Bank Indonesia s SRBI. After the January RDG meeting kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.75% for the fourth consecutive month, BI increased the SRBI auction frequency to twice weekly. Subsequently, the average SRBI rate increased by around 20 bps to 5.01%, while the outstanding SRBI also rose by Rp85.7tn, reaching Rp819.5tn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Surprisingly, despite weakening bids, the government decided to issue Rp40tn, above its initial target of Rp33tn and also higher than the previous issuance of Rp36tn. The weighted average cost of funds increased slightly to 6.02% (vs. 5.98% prior), while the average tenor shortened to 9.94 years (vs. 12.08 years). Notably, the awarded portion to foreign investors was relatively high at Rp6.2tn, or 81% of the total offshore bids (vs. 33% previously and 46% YTD average). This could support near-term foreign inflows, particularly after Moody s revised Indonesia s outlook to Negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another contributing factor behind the larger issuance may be weaker retail demand. The ongoing ORI bookbuilding (closing on 18-Feb) has attracted less than Rp14tn, or only 55.6% of the initial target. With no retail bond maturity at the start of the year, retail investors appear more coupon-sensitive and may be reallocating toward equities or gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As of 18-Feb, the government has issued Rp188tn year-to-date via regular auctions. With one remaining conventional bond auction and two Sukuk auctions in 1Q, and assuming similar issuance sizes, the total 1Q auction issuance could reach around Rp252tn, exceeding the initial 1Q target of Rp222tn. Including pre-funding, global bonds, and private placements, the total gross issuance has reached Rp286.5tn YTD, equivalent to 18.3% of the FY2026 APBN financing target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After the bond auction, in the secondary market, the INDOGB yields were mixed amid foreign inflows of Rp4.02tn (vs. +Rp0.23tn prior, or -Rp1.51tn cumulatively in the prior week). Bloomberg s data showed that the 5-yr FR109 fell to 5.65% (-3.1 bps), the 10-yr FR108 edged down to 6.38% (-0.6 bps), the 15-yr FR106 was unchanged at 6.60%, and the 20-yr FR107 edged up to 6.67% (+0.7 bps). Offshore indicators were mixed, with the 5-yr USD sovereign yield declining to 4.32% (-2.7 bps) and the 5-yr CDS widening slightly to 82.09. Meanwhile, the weakening of the rupiah continued, depreciating by 0.20% to Rp16,884\/USD (vs. -0.07% prior; or +0.19% cumulatively in the past week; or YTD: -1.07%), in line with the strengthening of the dollar index to above 97, after facing heightened volatility in the prior session as investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve s latest policy meeting for clearer signals on the interest rate path. Markets are also focused on Friday s release of the PCE Price Index, the Fed s preferred inflation metric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Based on DMO data (as of 13-Feb), foreign ownership in SBN fell further to Rp880.4tn (13.11% of the total outstanding). YTD, onshore banks have remained the largest net buyers (+Rp47.6tn), followed by insurance & pension funds (+Rp36.3tn), other investors (+Rp32.5tn), mutual funds (+Rp21.9tn), and Bank Indonesia (+Rp8.2tn). Foreign investors (still) recorded net purchases of +Rp1.8tn YTD, while retail investors remained net sellers (-Rp3.8tn).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In equities, the JCI climbed by 1.19% to 8,310.23 (vs. -0.64% prior; or -5.03% cumulatively in the prior week, or YTD: -3.89%), snapping 2 sessions of weakness as markets reopened after holidays. The daily turnover was stable at Rp25.2tn (vs. Rp24.3tn prior, or Rp23.2tn avg. daily turnover last week, or YTD avg.: Rp31.3tn), while foreign investors reverted to net buying of +Rp1.44tn (vs. -Rp2.03tn prior; or -Rp5.47tn cumulatively in the last week, or YTD: -Rp15.05tn). Regionally, many major markets in Asia were closed for Lunar New Year holidays. The Japanese Nikkei Index recorded -1.02%, and the Philippine PSEi Index recorded +0.41%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bank Indonesia is scheduled to announce its policy decision on 19-Feb. Based on our internal polling of 115 respondents, the majority (91%) expects BI to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.75%. Meanwhile, 9% anticipate a 25-bps rate cut to 4.50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Domestic Corporate Bonds<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the corporate side, trading activity strengthened on Wednesday (18-Feb), with total volume rising to Rp7.0tn (vs. Rp6.0tn on 13-Feb). Turnover came in above the prior week s daily average of Rp5.5tn, the 2026 YTD average of Rp 4.1tn, and the 2025 daily average of Rp4.0tn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The SIMORA02ACN1 series (maturing on 13-Jul-26), rated idA+(sy), was the most actively traded with a total volume Rp570bn. Its price rose to 102.11 (+1.98%), while the yield declined sharply to 4.67% (-498.88 bps). This was followed by the SMLPPI01CN1 series (maturing on 4-Oct-29), rated idA(sy) with a total volume Rp350bn. Its price increased to 108.02 (+0.34%), while the yield fell to 8.41% (-12.20 bps). Close behind was the SIBALI01ACN3 series (maturing on 15-Dec-26), rated idA(sy) with a volume of Rp341bn. Its price was unchanged at 98.42, while the yield rose to 8.50% (+8.25 bps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pefindo has rated idA+ rating with stable outlook to PT PLN Nusantara Renewables (PLN NR). According to Pefindo, the rating reflects PLN NR s strong likelihood of support fro Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) (PLN, idAAA\/Stable), a strong profile of PLN NR s strategic partners and the government s commitment to expand renewable energy. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by PLN NR s execution risks in its joint venture companies, limited cash flow from operations, and limited access to external funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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The total incoming bids in the conventional bond auction on 18-Feb continued to weaken by 17.7% to Rp63.1tn (vs. Rp76.6tn […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6562"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6562\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6563,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6562\/revisions\/6563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}