On Friday (2-Jan), the first trading day of 2026, Indonesian asset markets opened on a positive note, with equities and government bonds strengthening, while the rupiah softened against the US dollar. The JCI rose sharply by +1.17% to 8,748.13, supported by a solid market turnover of Rp22.2tn, well above the 2025 average daily turnover of Rp18.1tn. Foreign investors continued to accumulate equities, recording net inflows of Rp1.06tn, following full-year 2025 net outflows of Rp17.34tn. Regional equity markets were mostly closed due to the New Year holidays. Meanwhile, the rupiah weakened to ca. Rp16,720\/USD, reversing gains from the previous 3 sessions and tracking broader softness across Asian currencies.
In the bond market, INDOGBs extended their rally, with benchmark yields easing across most tenors. According to Bloomberg, the new benchmark 5-yr FR109 yield declined to 5.44% (-2.8 bps), the 10-yr FR108 eased to 6.06% (-2.5 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 fell to 6.48% (-1.0 bps). The 15-yr FR106 was the exception, edging up to 6.35% (+0.2 bps). As of 31-Dec, foreign holdings of government bonds stood at Rp878.7tn, equivalent to 13.38% of the total outstanding. For the full-year 2025, Bank Indonesia was the largest net buyer of government bonds (+Rp153.7tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp147.2tn), insurance and pension funds (+Rp145.4tn), mutual funds (+Rp56.0tn), other investors (+Rp30.2tn), and foreign investors (+Rp2.0tn). Retail investors remained net sellers ( Rp5.2tn)
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity picked up modestly on Friday (2-Jan), with total volume increasing to Rp17.0tn (vs. Rp9.0tn on 31-Dec). Nevertheless, overall activity remained subdued relative to historical levels. Turnover continued to come in well below the prior week s daily average of Rp21.5tn and the 2025 average of Rp32.0tn, and also trailed the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 4.5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) led market activity, recording Rp2.8tn in trading volume. Its price edged lower to 104.00 (-0.24%), pushing the yield higher to 5.49% (+6.14 bps). This was followed by the 14.6-yr FR0106 series (maturing on 15-Aug-40), which recorded Rp1.8tn in trading volume. Its price advanced to 107.70 (+1.89%%), driving the yield lower to 6.31% (-20.37 bps).
Looking ahead, the market attention will focus on the first government bond auction of the year on Tuesday (6-Jan). The government targets an issuance of Rp220tn in 1Q25, comprising 5 SUN and 5 SBSN auctions, implying an average issuance of ca. Rp44tn every 2 weeks. While this target is slightly lower than the initial 1Q25 plan of Rp228tn, it is broadly in line with last year s realization of Rp222tn. We expect the auction target to be achievable, supported by improving foreign participation and ample rupiah liquidity. Nevertheless, bond supply risks should continue to be monitored, particularly if fiscal deficits widen further this year.
On geopolitics, the recent Venezuela US tensions may trigger short-term risk-off sentiment, but we expect limited global economic impact. Venezuela s current economic footprint is small, contributing only ca. 0.1% of the global GDP, with oil production at ca. 1 mbpd (ca. 1% of global supply), far below its 1970s peak, when it accounted for ca. 1% of the global GDP and ca. 8% of the global oil production. As such, the implications are likely to be more political and geopolitical rather than materially economic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the corporate side, trading activity rebounded sharply on Friday (2-Jan), with total volume plunging to Rp5.0tn (vs. Rp181bn on 31-Dec). The turnover came in broadly in line the prior week s daily average of Rp5.1tn, above the 2025 average of Rp4.0tn and, well above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn. The SIBOLD01A series (maturing on 6-Apr-26), rated idA+(sy), led the segment with Rp320bn in trading volume. The bond s price jumped to 101.52 (+2.03%), driving the yield sharply lower to 1.17% (-770.16 bps). This was followed by the MBMA01BCN3 series (maturing on 9-Dec-30), rated idA, which recorded Rp310bn in trading volume. Its price rose to 103.00 (+2.01%), pushing the yield down to 7.52% (-49.20 bps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the week, average daily corporate bond trading volume increased slightly to Rp5.4tn (vs. Rp5.1tn in the previous week). The 1-yr BMRI01ASLCN1 series (maturing on 29-Dec-26), rated idAAA, emerged as the most actively traded corporate bond, recording a substantial total weekly volume of Rp667 bn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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