{"id":6177,"date":"2025-11-04T03:02:37","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T03:02:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/?p=6177"},"modified":"2025-11-04T03:02:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T03:02:38","slug":"inflation-review-gold-price-spike-lifted-october-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/2025\/11\/04\/inflation-review-gold-price-spike-lifted-october-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation Review: Gold Price Spike Lifted October Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Higher inflation in October.<\/strong> Headline inflation rose sharply to 2.9% y-o-y in October from 2.7% in September, against expectations of moderation (Mansek and consensus: 2.6%) (Exhibit 1)<\/strong>, driven mainly by personal care and other services. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.3% m-o-m, up from 0.2% in September, reflecting stronger personal care and other services inflation at 3.1% m-o-m (vs. 1.2% previously). Consequently, core inflation edged up to 2.4% y-o-y from 2.2%, against expectations of a stable outturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher core inflation.<\/strong> Core inflation rose by 0.4% m-o-m, up from 0.2%, implying 2.4% y-o-y from 2.2%. Personal care and other services accelerated to 11.9% y-o-y from 9.6%, driven by higher gold prices. Excluding gold, core inflation however rose less sharply to 1.9% y-o-y from 1.8% in September (Exhibit 2)<\/strong>. Other core components, including household equipment, education, and health, also increased, suggesting improving demand, while F&B restaurant prices eased, partially offsetting the gain (Appendix)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stable food but higher transport inflation.<\/strong> F&B and tobacco inflation remained steady at 5.0% y-o-y, with monthly inflation easing to 0.1% m-o-m from 0.4% in September. As expected, higher prices of red chili, chicken meat, and eggs were partly offset by declines in red onion, cayenne pepper, and rice (Exhibit 3)<\/strong>. Transport reported monthly inflation of 0.1% m-o-m, up from -0.02% in September, implying 0.5% y-o-y from -0.1%, reflecting higher non-subsidized fuel and diesel prices (Exhibit 4)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We maintain the lower inflation forecast for 2025.<\/strong> We continue to forecast lower average headline inflation of 1.8% in 2025, indicating a sharp decline from 2.3% in 2024. However, the higher-than-expected October outturn provides some upside risk to our forecast. For 2026, we expect inflation to average higher at 2.6%, reflecting the fading base effect from electricity discounts and a gradual demand recovery. The October inflation print will also feed into the 2026 minimum wage formula together with 3Q GDP growth data, with the official announcement likely on 21 November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policy implications.<\/strong> We maintain our forecast for the BI Rate to decline to a terminal level of 4.00% in 2026, implying one 25bp cut in 2025 with the remaining easing in 2026. The October inflation outturn suggests a lower real BI Rate of 1.9%, down from 2.1% in September (Exhibit 5)<\/strong>, but still above the long-term average of 1.6%, indicating a still-restrictive monetary stance. Underlying inflation also remains low after excluding the gold effect, suggesting still-weak domestic demand. However, intensified Rupiah pressures could force BI to shift toward a more pro-stability stance.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Higher inflation in October. Headline inflation rose sharply to 2.9% y-o-y in October from 2.7% in September, against expectations of moderation […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6177"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6182,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6177\/revisions\/6182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}