{"id":5600,"date":"2025-07-07T03:14:14","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T03:14:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/?p=5600"},"modified":"2025-07-07T03:14:16","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T03:14:16","slug":"indogb-yields-extend-decline-supported-by-continued-foreign-inflows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/2025\/07\/07\/indogb-yields-extend-decline-supported-by-continued-foreign-inflows\/","title":{"rendered":"INDOGB Yields Extend Decline, Supported by Continued Foreign Inflows"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indonesian government bonds (INDOGBs) extended their rally on Friday (4-Jul), with yields continuing to trend lower, driven by steady foreign fund inflows. Although the pace of inflows moderated, foreign investors still posted net purchases of Rp0.42tn (down from Rp1.54tn previously), based on CTP PLTE data. Interestingly, inflows were concentrated in non-benchmark series (+Rp1.17tn), while benchmark series saw net outflows of -Rp0.75tn suggesting opportunistic positioning in off-the-run series. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 bond yield fell by 2.0 bps to 6.21%, the 10-yr FR103 bond yield fell by 1.5 bps to 6.57%, the 15-yr FR106 bond yield fell by 2.2 bps to 6.89%, and the 20-yr FR107 bond yield fell by 1.7 bps to 6.97%. Meanwhile, the 10-yr USD global bond yield (Mar-2031) was flat at 4.49%, whereas Indonesia s 5-yr CDS continued to narrow to 74.92 (-1.04 bps). On the currency side, the rupiah continued to strengthen modestly against the USD, appreciating by 0.08% to Rp16,185\/USD (vs. +0.27% previously). On a year-to-date basis, the rupiah has been down 0.47%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian rupiah government bond trading activity slowed on Friday (4-Jul), with volume easing further to Rp25.3tn (vs. Rp32.7tn on 3-Jul). The figure fell well below the current week s average daily trading volume of Rp41.5tn and the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp30.0tn, though it remained comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) emerged as the most actively traded government bond, booking a volume of Rp4.5tn (vs. Rp2.7tn previously). Its price inched up to 101.30 (+0.20%), sending the yield lower to 6.19% (-4.66 bps). Close behind, the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) recorded a trading volume of Rp4.1tn (vs. Rp5.5tn previously). The bond s price edged up to 100.35 (+0.05%), nudging the yield slightly lower to 6.70% (-0.69 bps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on the DMO data (as of 2-Jul), foreign holdings in government bonds have increased to Rp921.5tn, or 14.61% of the total outstanding. Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has been the biggest net buyer of government bonds (amounting to +Rp107tn), followed by insurance and pension funds (+Rp53.2tn), foreign investors (+Rp44.8tn), retail investors (+Rp44.7tn), onshore banks (+Rp13.2tn), and other investors (+Rp10.7tn). Meanwhile, the only investor type that was a net seller was mutual funds, with a net sell of -Rp4.0tn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) ended lower on Friday (4-Jul), slipping 0.19% to 6,865.19, marking its fourth straight day of losses this week (vs. -0.05% previously; YTD: -1.78%). Market activity remained sluggish, with the total turnover at Rp7.9tn, significantly below the YTD daily average of Rp13.2tn. Foreign investors continued to retreat from the equity market, posting net outflows of Rp465.75bn (vs. -Rp31bn previously). This added to the cumulative foreign net sell of Rp56tn YTD, underscoring persistent risk-off sentiment in Indonesian equities. Asian markets were mostly under pressure as investors awaited clarity on US trade policy, particularly ahead of former President Donald Trump&#8217;s tariff deadline next week. The Hang Seng Index plunged by -0.64% to 23,916.06 (vs. -0.63% previously; YTD: +19.87%), while the Nikkei 225 Index edged up by +0.06% to 39,810.88 (vs. +0.06% previously; YTD: +1.50%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the week, the JCI extended its decline, falling by 0.47% (vs. -0.11% the previous week). In contrast, the bond market remained resilient, the 10-yr INDOGB yield fell by -7.4 bps (vs. -8.8 bps the previous week), and the USD-denominated 10-yr INDOGB yield also fell by -6.4 bps (vs. -7.4 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to strengthen modestly against the USD, appreciating by 0.12% (vs. +1.10% in the prior week), offering additional support to bond valuations. Additionally, foreign funds recorded outflows in the equity market, totaling -Rp2.78tn (vs. -Rp2.91tn last week), while in the bond market, foreign investors still recorded strong net inflows at Rp14.62tn (vs. Rp19.62tn last week).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, for the week, the average daily trading volume in government bonds surged to Rp41.5tn (vs. Rp28.2tn in the prior week), driven by auction-related inflows earlier in the week. The 10-yr FR0103 series retained its dominance, with its total weekly volume jumped to Rp40.6tn (vs. Rp26.6tn previously).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Domestic Corp Bond Market<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the corporate side, trading activity softened on Friday (4-Jul), with volume declining slightly to Rp5.9tn (vs. Rp6.7tn on 2-Jul). Despite the dip, the figure still exceeded the current week s average daily volume of Rp5.3tn and remained well above both the 2025 YTD daily average of Rp3.67tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The LPPI02ACN1 series (maturing on 4-Jul-26), rated idA, led the corporate bond segment with a trading volume of Rp594bn. Its price dropped to 102.00 (-1.50%), pushing the yield sharply higher to 8.39% (+158.66 bps). Following this, the WOMF05ACN2 series (maturing on 4-Jul-26), rated idAAA, posted a trading volume of Rp543bn. The bond s price remained relatively flat at 100.00 (-0.03%), with the yield ticking up to 6.45% (+3.17 bps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the week, the average daily trading volume in corporate bonds edged down slightly to Rp5.3tn (vs. Rp6.6tn in the prior week). The 1-yr LPPI02ACN1 series (maturing on 4-Jul-26), rated idA, stood out as the most actively traded corporate bond, recording a total weekly volume of Rp857bn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pefindo has assigned idA rating to Petrinfo jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN) s proposed Shelf Registered (SR) Bond I of maximum issuance of Rp2tn and its idA(sy) rating for Shelf Registered Sukuk Wakalah I of maximum of Rp2tn. The Company plans to issue Shelf Registered Bond I Phase I of maximum Rp650bn, which will loaned to its subsidiary, PT Multi Tambangjaya Utama (MUTU), to finance its working capital, and Shelf-Registered Mudharabah contract. At the same time, Pefindo has affirmed CUAN s corporate rating at idA with stable outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pefindo has assigned idA rating to PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk (TBS) s proposed Shelf Registered (SR) Bond I of maximum Rp800bn. The Company plans to issue Shelf Registered Bond I Phase I, a maximum of Rp125bn, to finance its capital expenditure (capex) and refinance its maturing loans. At the same time, Pefindo has affirmed idA ratings to TBS and its outstanding Bond I Year 2023 as well as its idA(sy) rating for its outstanding Sukuk Wakalah I Year 2025. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pefindo has assigned idAA- rating with a stable outlook to PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur Tbk (Bank Jatim). The rating reflects Bank Jatim s strong captive market in east Java Province, very strong capitalization, and strong liquidity profile. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by its moderate asset quality profile and tight competition in the productive loan segment.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Indonesian government bonds (INDOGBs) extended their rally on Friday (4-Jul), with yields continuing to trend lower, driven by steady foreign [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5600"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5600\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5601,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5600\/revisions\/5601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}