{"id":5421,"date":"2025-06-20T03:04:34","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T03:04:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/?p=5421"},"modified":"2025-06-20T03:04:35","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T03:04:35","slug":"pressure-builds-across-rupiah-assets-tracking-regional-weakness-amid-geopolitical-risks-and-hawkish-fed-tone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/2025\/06\/20\/pressure-builds-across-rupiah-assets-tracking-regional-weakness-amid-geopolitical-risks-and-hawkish-fed-tone\/","title":{"rendered":"Pressure Builds Across Rupiah Assets, Tracking Regional Weakness amid Geopolitical Risks and Hawkish Fed Tone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The rupiah asset class came under broad pressure on Thursday (19-Jun), mirroring the downbeat tone across Asian markets. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) extended losses, falling -1.96% to 6,968.64, turning the year-to-date (YTD) performance negative at -0.32%. Trading activity rebounded to Rp13.9tn (vs. Rp11.5tn prior), slightly above the YTD daily average of Rp13tn. Foreign outflows continued, recording -Rp1.25tn (vs. -Rp0.65tn) and bringing the YTD net sell to -Rp50.37tn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regionally, the risk sentiment remained weak. Japan s Nikkei 225 dropped -1.02% (YTD: -1.92%) and Hong Kong s Hang Seng tumbled -1.99% (YTD: +16.95%) as investors digested renewed geopolitical concerns and a slightly hawkish tone from the Fed s latest policy meeting. While the Fed held rates steady as expected, it warned of inflationary risks from tariffs, weighing further on equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, the government bond (INDOGB) market weakened. Yields rose across benchmarks, following foreign outflows of -Rp1.85tn (vs. +Rp2.06tn prior), based on CTP PLTE data. The 5-yr FR104 rose 3.9 bps to 6.38%, the 10-yr FR103 rose 2.2 bps to 6.73%, the 15-yr FR106 rose 0.9 bps to 7.00%, and the 20-yr FR107 rose 0.6 bps to 7.02%. The 10-yr USD global bond (Mar-2031) was flat at 86.05 (yield: 4.65%), while Indonesia s 5-yr CDS widened to 82.08 (+2.89 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to weaken, depreciating by -0.37% to Rp16,389\/USD (YTD: -1.71%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian rupiah government bond trading increased on Thursday, with volume rising to Rp32.8tn (vs. Rp29.4tn on 18-Jun). Although the figure remained below the prior week s average daily trading volume of Rp33.7tn, it surpassed the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp29.4tn and stood comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) retained its position as the most actively traded government bond, posting a volume of Rp8.5tn (vs. Rp5.7tn previously). The bond s price edged down to 100.45 (-0.25%), lifting the yield to 6.39% (+5.82 bps). Close behind, the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) recorded a trading volume of Rp6.6tn (vs. Rp5.6tn previously). Its price slipped to 100.05 (-0.28%), nudging the yield higher to 6.74% (+3.87 bps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest DMO data (as of 18-Jun) showed foreign holdings in government bonds stable at Rp919.1tn (14.73%). YTD, Bank Indonesia has been the largest buyer (+Rp96.4tn), followed by insurance &amp; pension funds (+Rp44.8tn), foreigners (+Rp42.5tn), retail (+Rp14.9tn), and others (+Rp4.1tn). Mutual funds (-Rp1.9tn) and onshore banks (-Rp0.9tn) continued to post net selling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Domestic Corp Bond Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the corporate side, trading activity continued to moderate on Thursday (19-Jun), with volume edging down further to Rp1.6tn (vs. Rp2.5tn on 18-Jun). The figure remained well below both the prior week s average daily volume of Rp3.6tn and the 2025 YTD daily average of Rp3.5tn, though it stood comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The SMDSSA01CCN3 series (maturing on 26-Nov-29), rated idAA(sy), led the corporate bond segment with a trading volume of Rp195bn. It was traded at 104.61 (+0.01%), with the yield relatively unchanged at 7.40% (-0.33 bps). Following this, the SMARMA01 series (maturing on 24-Nov-25), rated irA-, recorded a trading volume of Rp156bn. The bond s price rose to 100.02 (+1.02%), pushing the yield down to 9.69% (-242.45 bps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pefindo has assigned idA- rating with stable outlook to PT Jakarta Industrial Estate Pulogadung (JIEP). According to Pefindo, the rating reflects JIEP s: 1) strategic role to the Municipal Government of DKI Jakarta; 2) favorable asset location; and conservative financial profile. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by its limited landbank for further development, risk related to its business remastering plan, and exposure to adverse macroeconomic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fitch Ratings Indonesia has affirmed PT FWD Insurance Indonesia&#8217;s National Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) Rating at &#8216;A+(idn)&#8217; with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has simultaneously withdrawn FWD Indonesia&#8217;s rating. According to Fitch, the rating reflects the company&#8217;s synergy with the group, narrower loss and prudent investment approach.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The rupiah asset class came under broad pressure on Thursday (19-Jun), mirroring the downbeat tone across Asian markets. The Jakarta [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[24,34,26,21,20,40,29,27],"class_list":["post-5421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-research","tag-bi-rate","tag-nilai-tukar","tag-rupiah","tag-sbn","tag-srbi","tag-surat-utang","tag-the-fed","tag-usd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5421"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5421\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5422,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5421\/revisions\/5422"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/himdasun.or.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}