Renewed trade-war concerns, resilient US economic data, and continued rupiah weakness weighed on Indonesian assets.
Rupiah-denominated assets extended their losses on Thursday, with equities, bonds, and the rupiah all coming under pressure amid renewed global risk-off sentiment. The JCI declined by 1.7% to 5,840, bringing its month-to-date and year-to-date performance to -4.7% and -32.5%, respectively. The sell-off was driven by continued foreign outflows and increasing pressure on the rupiah as investors turned more cautious following renewed global trade tensions. Foreign investors recorded net equity outflows of Rp1.3tn, bringing the cumulative outflows to Rp3.7tn MTD and Rp57.6tn YTD. Trading activity remained relatively active, with turnover reaching Rp25.5tn, slightly above the 2026 daily average of Rp24.4tn.
Regional equity markets also weakened. The Hang Seng fell by 1.5%, while Japan’s Nikkei declined by 1.4%. Market sentiment turned more defensive after President Trump signaled potential reciprocal tariffs of 10 12.5% on around 60 trading partners, reigniting concerns over a broader trade conflict. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US labor market data, with April s JOLTS job openings rising to 7.6 million, reduced expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts and added further pressure on risk assets.
The rupiah depreciated further against the US dollar by 0.46% to Rp18,033/USD (depreciated by 0.89% MTD and 8.05% YTD), contributing to weakness in the bond market. Government bond yields moved higher across the curve, while foreign investors recorded modest net outflows of around Rp0.3tn, based on PLTE data. The 5-yr FR109 yield rose 8 bps to 6.78%, while the 10-yr FR108 yield increased by 10.4 bps to 6.78%. The 15-yr FR106 and 20-yr FR107 yields also rose by 7.8 bps and 6.0 bps, respectively, both closing at 6.92%. External risk indicators deteriorated modestly. Indonesia’s 5-yr USD sovereign yield increased by 0.9 bps to 4.82%, while the 5-yr CDS widened by 1.8 bps to 94.2 bps, reflecting a higher risk premium amid global uncertainty.
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity moderated on Thursday (4-June), with total volume declining to Rp24.6tn (vs. Rp29.3tn on 29-May). Turnover came in below the prior week s daily average of Rp36.9tn, the 2026 YTD average of Rp 32.0tn, and the 2025 daily average of Rp32.0tn. The 1-yr FR0059 series (maturing on 15-May-27) led market activity, recording Rp3.4tn in trading volume. Its price declined to 99.96 (-0.07%), while the yield rose to 7.04% (+7.72 bps). This was followed the 9.1-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35), recording Rp2.3tn in trading volume. Its price eased to 99.20 (-0.80%), while the yield increased to 6.87% (+11.95 bps). Close behind was the 0.6-yr PBS003 series (maturing on 15-Jan-27), with a total volume of Rp2.3tn. Its price slipped to 99.51 (-0.04%), while the yield inched up to 6.81% (+7.13 bps).
The latest bond ownership data is still as of 2-Jun, with foreign ownership at Rp867.9tn, equivalent to 12.6% of total outstanding government bonds. Year-to-date, insurance and pension funds have remained the largest net buyers with inflows of Rp109.5tn, followed by Bank Indonesia (+Rp80.5tn), other domestic investors (+Rp64.0tn), banks (+Rp34.1tn), retail investors (+Rp15.6tn), and mutual funds (+Rp14.7tn). Meanwhile, foreign investors have remained net sellers on a cumulative basis, although outflows have narrowed significantly to Rp10.7tn YTD.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity moderated on Thursday (4-June), with total volume declining to Rp11.2tn (vs. Rp16.2tn on 26-May). Turnover came in above the prior week s daily average of Rp10.6tn, the 2026 YTD average of Rp7.7tn, and the 2025 daily average of Rp4.0tn.
The SIBALI01BCN3 series (maturing on 10-Oct-28), rated idA(sy), was the most actively traded with a total volume of Rp586bn. Its price declined to 95.72 (-1.67%), while the yield rose to 9.18% (+74.93 bps). This was followed by the SMOPPM02ACN2 series (maturing on 24-Sep-30), rated idA+(sy) with a volume of Rp412bn. Its price increased to 102.54 (+1.45%), while the yield declined to 8.69% (-75.17 bps). Close behind was the SMINKP03BCN2 series (maturing on 30-Sep-30), rated idA+(sy) with a volume of Rp382bn. Its price declined to 99.45 (-2.31%), while the yield jumped to 12.73% (+1,043.09 bps).
Pefindo has affirmed idAAA rating with stable outlook to PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) (PLN). Pefindo has also affirmed its idAAA rating for PLN s Bonds and its idAAA(sy) for its Sukuk Ijarah. According to Pefindo, the rating reflects PLN s very strong likelihood of support from the government, reflecting its critical role in delivering electricity services nationwide. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by PLN s high financial leverage and its exposure to risks associated with the ongoing energy transition.
