Rupiah assets were mixed on Monday, with equities and government bonds extending their gains, supported mainly by strong domestic investor demand, while the rupiah weakened further against the USD. The JCI rose by 0.7% to 6,206 (-10.8% MTD, -28.2% YTD) as investor risk appetite toward equities improved. Regional sentiment also strengthened following progress in US-Iran negotiations, after President Trump signaled a two-phase framework starting with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, followed by broader nuclear talks within the next 30 60 days. Stock trading value reached Rp16.9tn, bringing the average daily trading value in 2026 to Rp24.2tn. Foreign investors, however, remained net sellers with outflows of Rp2.2tn, reducing the cumulative net inflows to Rp6.0tn MTD and bringing the YTD equity outflows to Rp43.9tn. Regional equity markets also moved higher, with the Nikkei rising by 2.9% to 65,158 (+9.9% MTD, +29.4% YTD) and the Shanghai Composite gaining 1.0% to 4,153 (+1.0% MTD, +4.6% YTD).
The INDOGB market also strengthened further, sending bond yields lower despite marginal foreign net sell flows of only Rp50bn. The 5-yr FR109 yield declined to 6.62% (-5.3 bps), the 10-yr FR108 to 6.66% (-5.7 bps), the 15-yr FR106 to 6.82% (-1.9 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 to 6.82% (-1.8 bps). Offshore indicators were relatively stable; Indonesia s 5-yr USD sovereign yield was flat at 4.88%, while the CDS edged up to 91.9 bps (+0.04 bps). The rupiah continued to depreciate by 0.19% to Rp17,743/USD (depreciating by 2.25% MTD or 6.31% YTD).
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity moderated on Monday (25-May), with total volume declining to Rp21.6tn (vs. Rp19.3tn on 22-May). Turnover came in below the prior week s daily average of Rp26.8tn, below the 2026 YTD average of Rp 31.9tn, and the 2025 daily average of Rp32.0tn. The 23.6-yr PBS038 series (maturing on 15-Dec-49) led market activity, recording Rp2.4tn in trading volume. Its price rose to 100.40 (+0.14%), while the yield declined to 6.84% (-1.20 bps). This was followed the 10-yr FR0108 benchmark series (maturing on 15-Apr-36), recording Rp2.4tn in trading volume. Its price rose to 98.92 (+0.58%), while the yield declined to 6.65% (-8.03 bps). Close behind was the 5-yr FR0109 benchmark series (maturing on 15-Mar-31), with a total volume of Rp2.0tn. Its price increased to 99.00 (+2.31%), while the yield declined to 6.12% (-55.29 bps).
From a positioning perspective, Indonesia s bond market has continued to be supported primarily by domestic investors. As of 22-May, foreign ownership in government bonds stood at Rp865.2tn, equivalent to only 12.64% of total outstanding government bonds. On a YTD basis, domestic investors remained the key buyers, led by insurance and pension funds (+Rp98.8tn), Bank Indonesia (+Rp79.3tn), other investors (+Rp61.2tn), onshore banks (+Rp20.6tn), and mutual funds (+Rp16.4tn), while foreign investors remained net sellers with cumulative outflows of Rp13.5tn.
The government will conduct its conventional bond auction on 26-May with an issuance target of Rp36tn and a maximum issuance of Rp54tn, unchanged from the previous auction. The auction will offer SPNs (1-, 3-, and 12-month tenors), alongside reopened fixed-rate series, including the 4.8-year FR109, 9.9-year FR108, 14.2-year FR106, 19.2-year FR107, 28.1-year FR102, and 38.1-year FR105. Based on our incoming bids model, we expect auction demand to rebound to around Rp54tn, within a range of Rp49tn 59tn, compared to Rp51.4tn in the previous auction on 12-May. The expected improvement is supported by the recent stabilization in global sentiment, lower US Treasury yields, easing oil prices, and continued strong domestic liquidity conditions.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity strengthened on Monday (25-May), with total volume rising to Rp9.2tn (vs. Rp8.2tn on 22-May). Turnover came in line with the prior week s daily average of Rp9.2tn, and above the 2026 YTD average of Rp7.6tn and the 2025 daily average of Rp4.0tn.
The SMINKP04BCN1 series (maturing on 4-Oct-29), rated idA+(sy), was the most actively traded with a total volume of Rp438bn. Its price declined to 107.22 (-1.37%), while the yield increased to 8.26% (+48.17 bps). This was followed by the SMDSSA01BCN3 series (maturing on 26-Nov-27), rated idAA(sy) with a volume of Rp290bn. Its price declined to 101.72 (-0.87%), while the yield increased to 6.91% (+60.98 bps). Close behind was the SMINKP03BCN2 series (maturing on 25-Aug-26), rated idA+(sy) with a volume of Rp250bn. Its price rose to 101.00 (+0.22%), while the yield declined to 6.21% (-98.40 bps).
Pefindo has assigned idAA+ rating with to PT BRI Asuransi Indonesia (BRINS). According to Pefindo, the rating reflects the very strong likelihood of support from PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BRI or the Parent), the Company s very strong business position, very strong capitalization, as well as very strong liquidity. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by intense competition in the industry.
Fitch Ratings Indonesia has affirmed the National Long-Term Rating of PT Pertamina Lubricants at AA-(idn) with a Stable Outlook. The rating benefits from expected support from parent company PT Pertamina Patra Niaga and reflects PTPL s strong market position in Indonesia s lubricant industry, supported by its extensive distribution network and integration within the Pertamina group. Fitch expects profitability to weaken in 2026 due to higher raw material costs and supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, although PTPL is expected to partially offset the impact through price adjustments. Despite this, the company is projected to maintain a conservative financial profile with a strong cash position and no debt.
