May 6, 2026

Sukuk Demand Hits YTD Low; 1Q26 GDP Surprises to the Upside

Sukuk auction demand weakened significantly on 5-May, with total incoming bids falling by -37% to Rp21.2tn (vs. Rp33.6tn on 21-Apr; YTD avg.: Rp36.2tn), marking the lowest demand so far this year. Demand remained concentrated in PBS series (60.6% of total bids), although the share declined from prior levels of 70%, or the YTD average of 62.6%. Demand for SPNS series reached Rp8.4tn (vs. Rp10.2tn in the previous auction), but the portion to total bids rose to 39.4% (vs. 30.4% prior), likely reflecting competition from higher-yielding SRBI instruments. By series, demand was led by the 23.6-yr PBS38 at Rp4.3tn, followed by the 9-mo SPNS (Rp4.2tn) and the 1-mo SPNS (Rp2.8tn).

The government-maintained issuance at Rp12tn (in line with target but lower than Rp15tn prior). SPNS issuance declined further to Rp3.2tn (26.3% of total). The average tenor increased to 11.8 years (vs. 6.8 years prior), while the weighted average cost of funds also rose to 6.50% (vs. 6.07%). Year-to-date issuance has reached Rp651.2tn, or 41.5% of the FY2026 target.

In the secondary market, INDOGB yields reversed higher across the curve following the auction. Meanwhile, foreign investors returned with a modest net inflow of +Rp210.8bn (vs. -Rp1tn prior), driven by purchases of benchmark series (+Rp1.8tn), while non-benchmark bonds saw outflows (-Rp1.6tn). Benchmark yields moved up: the 5-yr FR109 to 6.77% (+6.9 bps), the 10-yr FR108 to 6.79% (+1.9 bps), the 15-yr FR106 to 6.89% (+3.3 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 to 6.79% (+0.7 bps). External indicators were mixed, with the 5-yr USD bond yield edging up to 4.62% (+0.1 bps), while CDS tightened to 89.57 bps (-1.1 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to weaken, depreciating by -0.22% to Rp17,424/USD (-4.35% YTD).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity strengthened markedly on Tuesday (5-May), with total volume rising to Rp37.2tn (vs. Rp32.3tn on 4-May). Turnover aligned closely with the prior week s daily average of Rp37.5tn and exceeded the 2026 YTD average of Rp 32.6tn. The 5-yr FR0109 benchmark series (maturing on 15-Mar-31) led market activity, recording Rp5.3tn in trading volume. Its price edged down to 96.25 (-0.26%), while the yield climbed to 6.79% (+6.29 bps). This was followed the 4.2-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30), which posted Rp3.4tn in trading volume. Its price declined to 99.04 (-0.63%), while the yield rose to 6.76% (+17.42 bps). Close behind was the 0.7-yr PBS003 benchmark series (maturing on 15-Jan-27), with a total volume of Rp2.9tn. Its price slightly decreased to 99.93 (-0.07%), while the yield increased to 6.09% (+10.42 bps).

From a positioning perspective, foreign ownership in SBN stood at Rp865.6tn (12.73% of outstanding) as of 4-May. YTD flows show that domestic investors remain the key buyers, led by insurance & pension funds (+Rp80.8tn), Bank Indonesia (+Rp67tn), and other investors (+Rp62.3tn). Mutual funds, retail, and banks also recorded net inflows, while foreign investors remained net sellers (-Rp13.1tn YTD).

On the equity side, the JCI extended its gains, rising by +1.22% to 7,057.11 and reducing YTD losses to -18.39%. However, turnover declined to Rp17.2tn, and foreign investors returned to net selling (-Rp518.4bn). Regional markets were mixed, with the Hang Seng decreasing by -0.76%, while the KOSPI surged by +5.12%.

On the macro front, Indonesia s economy expanded by 5.61% YoY in 1Q26, accelerating from 5.39% in 4Q25 and coming in above market expectations (5.4%). This marks the strongest growth since 3Q22. The upside was mainly driven by solid domestic demand. Private consumption strengthened to 5.52% YoY (vs. 5.11% prior), supported by Ramadan-related spending, while government expenditure surged to 21.81% (vs. 4.55%), reflecting fiscal support. Investment remained resilient at 5.96% (vs. 6.12%). On the external side, net exports turned weaker. Export growth slowed sharply to 0.90% (vs. 3.25% prior) amid global trade disruptions, while imports rose faster at 7.18% (vs. 3.96%), in line with stronger domestic demand. The economy expanded by 5.11% in 2025, below the government s 5.2% target, with growth projected at 5.4% this year.

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity moderated on Tuesday (5-May), with total volume recorded a slight decrease to Rp9.8tn (vs. Rp10.5tn on 4-May). Despite the drop, the volume remained robust, came in above the prior week s daily average of Rp9.2tn and the 2026 YTD average of Rp7.3tn.

The TRIM01BCN1 series (maturing on 6-Jul-26), rated idA was the most actively traded with a total volume of Rp573bn. Its price inched up to 100.49 (+0.02%), while the yield declined sharply to 6.23% (-37.34 bps). This was followed by the BBKP02ACN2 series (maturing on 9-Sep-26), rated AAA(idn) with a volume of Rp435bn. Its price slightly inched up to 100.32 (+0.01%), while the yield decreased to 5.50% (-7.10 bps). Close behind was the SMLPPI01CN1 series (maturing on 4-Oct-29), rated idA(sy) with a volume of Rp380bn. Its price increased to 107.81 (+0.27%), while the yield declined to 8.35% (-9.61 bps).

Pefindo has assigned Perum Jasa TirtaI (PJTI) rated idAAA with stable outlook. According to Pefindo, the rating is mainly driven by PJT1 s almost certain likelihood of support from the Government due to its critical status in managing water resources in several river areas. Regarding the Company s standalone credit profile, Pefindo sees it is supported by PJT1 s very strong economic service area and very conservative capital structure. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by PJT1 s exposure to hydrological risk and inflexibility to adjust the tariff.

Pefindo has assigned idAAA rating with stable outlook to PT Pegadaian Galeri Dua Empat (Galeri 24). The rating is primarily driven by Pefindo s assessment of Galeri 24 position as a core subsidiary of its parent company, PT Pegadaian (idAAA/Stable). Meanwhile, according to Pefindo, Galeri 24 s standalone credit profile reflects its strong business position in the gold trading business and strong synergy with the Parent, very strong demand for gold products, as well as very strong financial profile. However, it is constrained by the Company s limited margin expansion.

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