Fixed InSight
Today’s highlights:
Trump planned to suspend the Jones Act, which would allow foreign tankers to transport oil between US ports. However, the oil price still soared at solid level, with Khamenei saying Strait of Hormuz to stay closed. From US data release, Housing Starts beat expectation last month (curr: 1.487mn, cons: 1.35mn, prev: 1.387mn), followed by Jan’26 trade deficit (curr: -USD54.5bn, cons: -USD66.6bn, prev: -USD72.9bn). From domestic, Bahlil said that Indonesia considered options to import oil from various countries, incl. Brazil and Australia.
From the bond market, FR 56, 37, 75, and 83 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 99.74 (+0.5%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.0% at USDIDR at 16,893. The 10yr UST yield increased by +3.1bps to 4.26% and 10yr INDOGBR increased by +1.4bps to 6.72% – the spread between the two was at 246bps.
Economy: Trump administration planned to suspend the Jones Act to ease surging oil prices
The Trump administration planned to issue temporary waivers to the Jones Act, a century-old maritime law that requires goods transported between US ports to be carried on US-built and US-flagged vessels, as part of efforts to curb rising fuel prices amid the Iran war. The proposed 30-day waiver would allow foreign tankers to move oil, gasoline, diesel, liquefied natural gas and fertilizer between US ports, enabling cheaper vessels to transport fuel from the Gulf Coast to refineries and demand centers on the East Coast. The measure was considered one of several policy options to mitigate the surge in crude and gasoline prices triggered by supply disruptions and shipping risks linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The administration also coordinated broader actions to stabilize oil markets, including releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and supporting international efforts to inject additional oil supply into global markets. Source: Bloomberg
Economy: In Jan’26, US trade deficit beat consensus at -USD54.5bn (cons: -USD66.6bn, prev: -USD72.9bn)
Imports fell by -0.7% m-m, partly driven by lower pharmaceutical shipments, while exports remained relatively steady, contributing to the improvement in the trade balance. The data suggested some easing in external imbalances at the start of the year, even as global trade flows continued to face volatility from geopolitical tensions and shifting energy markets. The narrowing deficit may provide modest support to US economic growth calculations for 1Q26 because net exports form part of the GDP accounting framework. However, economists noted that trade figures could remain volatile in the coming months as energy prices surge and supply chains adjust to disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. Source: Bloomberg
Economy: Indonesia’s govt. opened option to import crude from US, Brazil and Australia if Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts supply
Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Minister—Bahlil Lahadalia—said that Indonesia’s govt. opened the possibility of importing crude oil from US, Brazil, Australia and several other countries, if the Strait of Hormuz closure persisted amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. He said authorities were considering shifting crude supply away from the Middle East to alternative sources as part of contingency planning to maintain national energy security. The govt. continued monitoring global oil price movements and geopolitical developments before taking further policy decisions, emphasizing that securing the best supply option remained the priority. Source: Kontan
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