Rupiah assets closed mixed on Monday, supported by renewed foreign interest ahead of the Fed s December FOMC meeting. The JCI rose 0.9% to 8,711 (+2.4% MTD, +23.0% YTD), with broad-based gains across major sectors. Energy (+2.7%), financials (+1.4%), technology (+1.3%), and infrastructure (+2.1%) led to the advance, while consumer-related sectors also strengthened expectations for higher year-end spending. Trading activity was solid, with the turnover reaching Rp27.3tn (YTD ADTV: Rp17.2tn). Foreign investors booked a net inflow of Rp52.7bn, extending the MTD inflows to Rp2.5tn (+Rp52.7bn YTD). Asian equities also traded higher, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.5% and the Nikkei edging up 0.2%, supported by stronger risk appetite as markets priced in an 86% probability of a 25-bps Fed rate cut this week. A stable USD and lower global bond volatility further boosted sentiment across regional markets.
INDOGB performance was mixed, with modest foreign inflows of Rp313bn (vs. Rp169bn prior). The 5-yr FR104 yield eased to 5.63% ( 1.7 bps), while the 10-yr FR103 edged up to 6.19% (+1.2 bps). Long-end yields ticked up, with FR106 at 6.46% and FR107 at 6.55%. Externally, the 5-yr USD INDON yield rose slightly to 4.42% (+1.3 bps), while Indonesia s 5-yr CDS was stable at 72.1 bps. The rupiah weakened by 0.28% to Rp16,690/USD.
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity moderated further on Monday (8-Dec), with total volume slightly decreasing to Rp12.6tn (vs. Rp15.0tn on 5-Dec). The figure remained well below the prior week s daily average of Rp23.6tn, the 2025 YTD average of Rp32.6tn, and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5.3-yr FR0109 series (maturing on 15-Mar-31) led market activity, booking Rp2.7tn in volume. Its price slipped to 101.42 (-0.03%), nudging the yield higher to 5.56% (+0.70 bps). This was followed by the 2.6-yr PBS030 series (maturing on 15-Jul-28), which recorded Rp2.6tn in trades. Its price inched up to 101.44 (+0.04%), sending the yield lower to 5.27% (-1.81 bps).
DMO data (as of 5-Dec) showed foreign SBN holdings inching up to Rp874.1tn (13.34% of outstanding). YTD, domestic banks remain the largest buyers (+Rp155.3tn), followed by BI (+Rp147.1tn), pension & insurance (+Rp138.7tn), mutual funds (+Rp53.5tn), and others (+Rp25.8tn). Foreign investors remain net sellers for the year ( Rp2.6tn YTD), though outflows have slowed.
On 9-Dec, the government will conduct the final sukuk auction of 2025, targeting an issuance of Rp7tn. Instruments on offer include SPNS (1-mo, 6-mo, 9-mo) and reopened series PBS030, PBS040, PBS034, PBS039, and PBS038. We expect softer demand, with incoming bids in the Rp32tn 42tn range.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity strengthened on Monday (8-Dec), with total volume rising to Rp5.8tn (vs. Rp4.8tn on 5-Dec). The figure exceeded the prior week s daily average of Rp5.0tn, and remained well above both the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.8tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.
The SMSMII03ACN2 series (maturing on 7-Dec-26), rated idAAA(sy), led the segment, posting Rp2,256bn in volume. Its price edged down to 100.00 (-0.02%), pushing the yield higher to 5.00% (+2.06 bps). This was followed by the SMII04ACN4 series (maturing on 7-Dec-26), rated idAAA, which booked Rp580bn in trades. Its price held largely steady at 100.03, translating into a yield of 4.97% (-0.02 bps).
Pefindo has affirmed idA+ rating with stable outlook to PT OKI Pulp and Paper Mills (OPPM). Pefindo has also affirmed idA+ ratings to OPPM s Bond I Year 2021, Bond II Year 2022, Bond III Year 2022, Shelf Registered (SR) Bond I Year 202, SR USD Bond I Year 2023, SR Sustainable Bond I Year 2023, SR Bond II Year 2025, and SR USD Bond II Year 2025 as well as idA+(sy) ratings to the company s Sukuk Mudharabah I Year 2021, Sukuk Mudharabah II year 2022, SR Sukuk Mudhaarabah I Year 2023 and SR Sukuk Mudaharabah II Year 2025. According to Pefindo, the corporate rating reflects OPPM s very strong market position, vertically well-integrated operations, and strong profit margins. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by its moderate financial policy amid its significant capital expenditure (capex) plans and exposure to price volatility of products and raw materials.
Pefindo has affirmed PT Ricobana Abadi (RICO) s rating at idSD and its Medium-Term Notes (MTN) I Year 2017 rating at idD . According to Pefindo, the rating reflects RICO s inability to address its matured MTN of Rp379.05bn due on 20-Dec-2022.The rating also reflects the Company s vulnerable business and financial condition as well as exposure to fluctuating commodity prices and environmental risk.
Pefindo has assigned idA rating for PT Lontar Papyrus Pulp & Paper Industry (LPPI) s Shelf-Registered Bond IV Year 2025 with the maximum amount of issuance of Rp5tn and idA(sy) for LPPI s Sukuk Mudharabah II Year 2025 with the maximum amount of issuance of Rp3tn. According to Pefindo, the proceed will be used for debt refinancing and working capital. Pefindo has also affirmed idA rating for LPPI and its outstanding bonds. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable. According to Pefindo, the rating reflects LPPI s strong business position in the pulp & tissue industry, vertically well-integrated operations, as well as strong operating management. However, it is constrained by risks related to high working capital needs as well as exposure to price volatility of products and raw materials.
Pefindo has affirmed idAAA rating with a stable outlook to PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) TBk (Bank BTN). At the same time, Pefindo has also assigned idAAA rating for Bank BTN s proposed Shelf Registration Social Bond I with maximum amount of Rp10tn and its idAA ratings for Bank BTN s proposed Subordinated Bond I with maximum mount of Rp5tn. According to Pefindo, the rating is mainly driven by Bank BTN s very strong likelihood of support from the government. Meanwhile, the Bank s standalone credit profile reflects its very strong business position as well as very strong liquidity and financial flexibility, although constrained by its below-average asset quality and moderate profitability indicators.
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