As expected, sukuk auction demand moderated in the final 3Q25 auction. The total incoming bids fell 36.3% to Rp38tn (vs. Rp59.7tn prior the highest YTD, but still above the YTD average of Rp33.7tn). Demand was led by PBS003 (1.3-yr, Rp9.2tn; 24.2%), PBS038 (24.2-yr, Rp7.9tn; 20.8%), and PBS034 (13.7-yr, Rp7.8tn; 20.5%). Meanwhile, the government issued only Rp7tn, below its Rp9tn target and Rp10tn previously, marking the smallest auction this year. The weighted average cost of funds declined to 5.91% (vs. 6.11% prior), while the average tenor shortened slightly to 10.7 years (vs. 11.7 years). Thus, the year-to-date issuance has reached Rp1,038.2tn gross (75.7% of our FY target, deficit assumption: -2.78% of GDP). We see the bond supply risk as manageable, with the remaining issuance needs estimated at Rp35.5tn per biweekly auction against average incoming bids of Rp122.8tn and realized issuance of Rp39.9tn.
In the secondary market, INDOGBs traded mixed despite foreign outflows of -Rp1.55tn, which was largely offset by benchmark inflows (+Rp1.75tn), based on CTP PLTE data. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 traded at 104.09 (-0.14%), yielding 5.51% (+3.4 bps); the 10-yr FR103 at 102.87 (+0.02%), yielding 6.35% (-0.3 bps); the 15-yr FR106 at 103.43 (-0.02%), yielding 6.75% (+0.2 bps); and the 20-yr FR107 at 103.30 (+0.14%), yielding 6.82% (-1.3 bps). Offshore, the 5-yr USD global bond yield eased to 4.39% (-1.1 bps), while the CDS spread narrowed slightly to 81.9 bps. The rupiah stayed relatively stable at Rp16,669/USD (+0.07%; YTD: -3.52%) as the DXY softened ahead of the 1-Oct US government funding deadline.
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity soared on the last trading day of September, Tuesday (30-Sep), with total volume surging to Rp61.3tn (vs. Rp35.7tn on 29-Sep). This marked the highest daily trading volume since 4-Feb-25, when activity reached Rp60.1tn, and was largely driven by the government sukuk auction held on the same day. The figure surpassed the prior week s daily average of Rp42.5tn and remained well above both the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp32.3tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) led the market with Rp14.9tn in trading volume (vs. Rp9.8tn previously). Its price slipped to 103.95 (-0.34%), lifting the yield to 5.55% (+8.15 bps). This was followed by the 15-yr FR0106 series (maturing on 15-Aug-40), which booked Rp4.2tn in trading volume. Its price edged up to 103.70 (+0.05%), compressing the yield to 6.23% (-50.09 bps).
Regarding flows, foreign ownership of government bonds stood at Rp912.8tn (14.14% of outstanding) as of 29-Sep. YTD, Bank Indonesia has remained the largest net buyer (+Rp143.5tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp110.1tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp69.9tn), foreign investors (+Rp36.1tn), others (+Rp22.1tn), mutual funds (+Rp17.7tn), and retail (+Rp17.3tn).
Meanwhile, the equity market weakened, with the JCI down -0.77% to 8,125 (YTD: +13.9%). The turnover moderated to Rp20.6tn (vs. Rp24tn prior), while foreign reported outflows of -Rp1.7tn, thus erasing 2 days of inflows and widening the YTD outflows to -Rp54.8tn. Regionally, Asian equities were mixed: the Hang Seng index rallied +1.9% (YTD: +36.9%) due to AI optimism and policy support expectations, while the Nikkei index slipped -0.25% (YTD: +14.3%) ahead of BoJ and Fed signals.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, bond trading activity also surged on Tuesday (30-Sep), with total volume climbing significantly to Rp7.5tn (vs. Rp4.5tn on 29-Sep). The figure stood well above the prior week s daily average of Rp2.7tn, the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.9tn, and the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.
The INKP05BCN5 series (maturing on 30-Sep-30), rated idA+, which debuted in the secondary market, led the segment with Rp2,202bn in trading volume. It traded at par (100.00), yielding 9.50%. This was followed by the SMINKP04CN5 series (maturing on 30-Sep-30), rated idA+(sy), which also debuted in the secondary market, posting Rp974bn in trading volume. The bond traded at 99.80, yielding 9.55%.
Fitch Ratings has upgraded the rating on Star Energy Geothermal (Wayang Windu) Ltd.’s (SEGWW) USD580mn fully amortising 6.75% senior secured notes due 2033 to ‘BB’, from ‘BB-‘. The Outlook is Stable. According to Fitch, the upgrade reflects Fitch s expectation that SEGWW’s credit profile will strengthen as it continues to expand, building cash flow and scale. The expansion comprises a newly built 30 megawatt (MW) Unit 3 and an 18.4MW retrofit to Units 1 and 2. Fitch expects 64% of capex for the expansion to be funded with equity or a shareholder loan, both subordinated to the existing notes, around 20% from internal cash and 16% via new debt. Fitch sees this funding mix should allow SEGWW’s revenue and cash flow to rise without a commensurate increase in debt service obligations, as Fitch forecasts an average debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) during the loan tenor under our rating case to reach 1.41x, from 1.34x prior to the expansion plan. The rating is also underpinned by SEGWW’s strong operational record, as Fitch expects a reliable supply of geothermal resources, subject to timely maintenance and planned drilling. SEGWW benefits from long-term energy sales contracts (ESCs) to access geothermal resources and to sell electricity to Indonesia’s state-owned utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) (PLN, BBB/Stable). Its take-or-pay power-purchase agreement with a flat tariff for Unit 1 and fixed-indexed tariffs for Units 2 and 3 largely eliminates volume and merchant price risks.
