Bond Market Review (Friday,08/15)

Bank Indonesia’s Report on the Performance of the Rupiah Stability Indicator. Government Debt Securities (SUN) closed weaker in the final trading session of last week. According to data from PHEI, the yield on the 5-year SUN Benchmark (FR0104) rose by 4 basis points (bps) to 5.86%, and the yield on the 10-year SUN Benchmark (FR0103) increased by 6 bps to 6.38%. Bloomberg data showed that the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) rose by 1 bp to 6.39%.

The outright transaction volume for Government Securities (SBN) was recorded at Rp20.8 trillion on Friday, lower than the previous day’s volume of Rp28.9 trillion. FR0104 and FR0103 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp3.8 trillion and Rp2.1 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, outright corporate bond transactions totaled Rp3.7 trillion.

According to Bank Indonesia’s Report on the Performance of the Rupiah Stability Indicator, foreign investors booked a net buy of Rp15.31 trillion during the transaction period of August 11–14, 2025. This flow consisted of Rp7.88 trillion net buy in the SBN market, Rp5.37 trillion in the equity market, and Rp2.05 trillion in the Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) market. On a year-to-date basis as of August 14, 2025 (settlement data), non-residents posted a net buy of Rp71.83 trillion in the SBN market. However, this was offset by a net sell of Rp94.52 trillion in SRBI and Rp57.48 trillion in equities.

Bloomberg data showed that the Rupiah weakened against the US Dollar by 0.33%, moving from Rp16,115/US$ on Thursday to Rp16,169/US$ on Friday. Global indicators as of Friday reflected a negative sentiment, as seen in the increase in United States Treasury (UST) yields. The 5-year UST yield curve rose by 3 bps to 3.85%, and the 10-year UST yield curve increased by 4 bps to 4.33%. On the other hand, Indonesia’s 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) declined by 1 bp to 68 bps.

Compared with the previous week, the 10-year UST yield curve increased by 6 bps. Over the same period, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS recorded a decline of 7 bps, and the Rupiah appreciated by 0.76% against the US Dollar. Despite mixed indicators, the 10-year SUN yield curve recorded a modest weekly decline of 2 bps, closing at 6.39%.

Bond Market Preview (Tuesday,08/19)

As of Monday, UST yields extended their upward move, with the 5-year and 10-year tenors rising by 1 bp to 3.86% and 4.34%, respectively. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS continued to decline, dropping by 2 bps to 66 bps. According to Bloomberg data, the Rupiah weakened by 0.18% against the US Dollar to Rp16,198/US$ on Monday. Market participants are now turning their focus toward the upcoming Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (RDG BI) scheduled for 19–20 August 2025.

Considering the above market conditions, we expect demand for Rupiah-denominated SBN instruments to remain stable. We project the weekly range for the 10-year SUN yield during the period of August 18–22 to be in the range of 6.33%–6.52%. Based on yield curve valuation, we expect the following bonds to be attractive to investors: FR0085, FR0096, FR0065, and FR0068.

Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for August 19, 2025 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!

IND

https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=eb63a439-863a-4334-ac99-4573f3a05448

ENG

https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=55cd373d-3a0d-49e2-82b8-092ee366e99e