Today’s highlights:

As we are nearing 1 Aug’25 deadline, not many trade deals were reached between US and its trading partners. While US-EU were progressing toward US 15% reciprocal tariff, EU was not optimistic to reach a deal before deadline. The region then prepared a tariff package for 90% of US goods, if there was no deal at all. On top of that, Trump pledged to impose at least 15% reciprocal tariffs on all countries, standing higher than previously announced 10% rate. From domestic, US-Indonesia successfully established framework for reciprocal trade deals. Indonesia would basically eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers—esp. import licensing requirements—for a full range of US industrial and agricultural goods. US would then give lower reciprocal tariff to US (curr: 19%, prev: 32%).

From the bond market, FR 40, 84, 86, and FRSDG001, are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 97.21 (-0.2%). Rupiah was appreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 16,293. The 10yr UST yield was up by +3.6bps at 4.38% and 10yr INDOGBR was up by +1.4bps at 6.50% – the spread between the two was at 212bps.

Economy: US reciprocal tariff floor may rise to 15% (prev: 10%)

Trump stated that reciprocal tariff would not go below 15%, while the range would be somewhere in 15—50%. The latest move signaled that Trump’s aggressiveness in imposing additional import levies. On another occasion, US-EU deals were progressing toward US 15% reciprocal tariff. Above a certain quota, however, EU’s steel and aluminum would be charged 50% rate. While EU side became optimistic on the deal, concerns remained over the inability to predict Trump’s decisions. To overcome this issue, EU was preparing tariff plans for 90% of US goods, if the deal was not reached by 1 Aug’25. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: US-Indonesia agreed on reciprocal trade framework

White House released the joint statement over the trade framework, covering various areas. Indonesia would eliminate ~99% tariff barriers for a full range of US goods, exempt US agricultural products from import licensing requirements incl. commodity balance, provide certainty of personal data transfer to US, join Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity, and many more. At the same time, US would imposed lower reciprocal tariff for Indonesia’s goods (curr: 19%, prev: 32%). Source: White House

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